AP PHOTO/M. SCHREIBERWith just five negotiating days left before the global-warming summit in Copenhagen this December, the international climate community has tempered its expectations and begun to look for a graceful exit.
Pressure on global leaders has been building since negotiators signed the 'Bali Road Map' in December 2007, which set an aggressive timetable that was supposed to conclude in Denmark with a treaty to follow the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Rich and poor countries alike have spent two years crafting climate policies and proposals, but deep divisions remain.
When irate representatives of developing nations walked out of a meeting with European officials in Bangkok earlier this month, many realized that even technical questions about how to structure a deal might be out of reach this year. Only one interim negotiating meeting remains — in Barcelona, Spain, on 2–6 November. Even staunch optimists are now rethinking their definition of success in Copenhagen.
"I don't like the term 'global deal'," says Jennifer Morgan, who heads climate policy for the World Resources Institute in Washington DC. "The question is whether we can reach an agreement that allows countries to move forward with confidence."
Many ideas have been floated on how to accomplish that goal. Some argue for building a consensus around areas of agreement and holding off on contentious issues involving money or specific commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Others focus on the architecture of a treaty and a broad, if symbolic, agreement among global leaders. Some have suggested simply 'stopping the clock' on negotiations for a few months.
Such proposals are intended to build political confidence and maintain momentum while allowing the United States more time to work out its domestic policy. Although the House of Representatives has passed climate legislation that would curb emissions to 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 and to 83% below by 2050, Senate Democrats are running out of time to pass a companion bill before Copenhagen.
With the United States in limbo, the Europeans are necessarily leading the talks for the developed world. The European Union (EU) has committed to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 30% if there is a global deal, but even those numbers are not enough for most developing countries. The Group of 77 (G77), which represents China, India and the majority of developing nations, is calling on rich countries to cut their emissions by 40% by 2020. So far, only Norway has stepped up to that challenge.
India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, says the negotiations are unlikely to go anywhere unless wealthy nations embrace more ambitious emissions reductions and promise more money to help developing countries cope with climate change. He says negotiators should focus on a few key issues, including deforestation, adaptation money for the least developed nations, and the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows rich countries to offset their emissions by paying for clean-energy and other 'green' projects in the developing world.
"We need a more limited and more pragmatic approach if we are going to make Copenhagen a success," Ramesh says.
Click for larger image.SOURCE: WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTEAt the same time, wealthy nations are insisting on stronger commitments from developing countries — many of whom have responded by introducing significant new policies. Indonesia recently announced plans to reduce its emissions by 26% by 2020 compared with predicted levels if emissions were left uncurbed, pledging a 41% reduction if it receives international aid for measures such as stopping deforestation. Even India, which has repeatedly said it won't commit to anything until its per-capita emissions reach those of the developed world (see graphic), has proposed the idea of 'voluntary mitigation outcomes' that would allow the country to calculate specific emissions reductions based on expanding solar power and other existing climate policies.
China, the world's largest emitter, is moving forwards with aggressive energy-efficiency targets and renewable-energy mandates — but has yet to pledge binding commitments or agree a date to level off its explosive emissions growth.
Many were caught off guard in Bangkok when officials from the G77 and Europe fought over the future of the Kyoto Protocol. The G77 wants to maintain Kyoto — which is binding for developed but not developing countries on greenhouse-gas emissions — as the primary international framework. EU officials want to create a single new treaty under the original UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and then import the Kyoto Protocol. The United States claims neutrality, but some fear that it could impede progress by cherry-picking which parts of Kyoto it would be willing to subscribe to in a new treaty.
Some observers believe that the biggest challenge will be money, particularly in the midst of an economic crisis. Costs for adaptation to climate change in the developing world alone have been estimated at US$100 billion annually, and some suggest the figure could be two or three times that amount. The World Bank estimates that establishing a low-carbon economy in developing countries could cost several hundred billion dollars each year.
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Money could enable progress on other fronts. Some developing nations have proposed to allow rich countries that cannot sufficiently reduce their emissions to make up the shortfall with cash. Indeed, after blasting the inadequacy of the US climate proposals, India's Ramesh smiles and acknowledges that a deal would be much more likely if the United States were to put, say, $200 billion on the table.
Saleemul Huq, who tracks adaptation issues for the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development, says that developed countries will have two more chances to address the issue before Copenhagen (see also Nature doi:10.1038/news.2009.1019; 2009). The EU finance ministers were scheduled to meet as Nature went to press, and a meeting of the G20 finance ministers is due in early November.
"One expects that they will come back with some kind of offer, and that would then unlock other issues in the negotiations," Huq says. "They will still be wrangling about the amounts, but at least they will go into the process of negotiating. Right now they are posturing, not negotiating."
See Editorial, page 1027, and online at http://www.nature.com/roadtocopenhagen
Enough politics! Let´s be practical! Climate urges! Let´s take all Carbon that the climate can take divided by number of global population to get the target. Than let´s take to historic carbon use = the amount of carbon each country used since industrial revolution up to its present development stage. Divided by its population. The difference between the two number is how much that particular country has to pay to a country with credit! This way development will be link to carbon use trough history!!
Dear co-strugglers to save the planet
Forgive me for taking this space to call your attention to a vital research that addresses the problem of Global warming and climate change. The modern world is built on wrong understanding of nature. If we have to save the planet we need to understand the Truth of Nature.
The Ratio of Energy and Matter
The Real Truth behind Global Warming and Climate Change
The world and the universe is the interplay of energy and matter. This reality is known to modern man as well as the ancient. But our understanding of nature formed from the interplay of energy and matter is wanting. Science as well as common sense tells that when the heat of a system increases, matter enclosed in it gains energy and its goes into disorder. We can take the example tea particle in a boiling tea pot. Beyond certain point the system is forced to go into phase change.
This means the temperature of the system is maintained when the ratio of energy and matter state of the system is maintained. There is huge cry about Global warming and Climate Change due to increase in temperature of the environment through carbon emission. But if we stand back and observe nature, we note the root cause for the Global Warming and Climate Change is our lack of understanding of design of nature and it’s working to maintain energy/matter ratio. Here is a lead that opens a new realm of thinking and opens new approaches to solve the problem.
When west awakes to sun light/heat, unwinds and goes into disorder, the east sleeps to darkness, winds and goes into new order. When light peaks in the west simultaneously darkness peaks in the east and they give way to the opposite. The left and right are instantaneously communicated and there is information flow between the two. Two opposing phases [ordering and disordering] which coexist thus seems to balance the ratio of energy and matter flow in the earth system. By this process earth maintains its temperature within certain limits.
The second law of thermodynamics applied to material world tells us that the system should loose energy, and the matter in it should collapse to a point. [Big Bang Theory] From energy point of view, the ever increasing energy released into the environment should create shredding force on all system existing in it. These are realities known to science.
However, if we stand back and observe nature from a point of freedom, we note a new dimension to nature. All life by instinct is anti-gravitational. The second law of thermodynamics applied to living system shows opposition to material world. This means the existence of even one living cell can stop the Big Bang Collapse. Incidentally Einstein whose work led to Big Bang Theory was virtually against it and introduced anti-gravity. But he retracted it, probably for lack of visions to support it.
If you observe plant system, they take light and heat and thus cool the environment. In short they work towards order. When the darkness fall they transform the energy into matter and thus grow against gravity and time directed to collapse. In short under second law of thermodynamics material world contracts and living world expands. So by design earth is self sustaining. Earth with plants is two dimensional. If you include animals into the picture the energy flow in earth becomes three dimensional. Neither plants nor animals interfere into design of earth and its functioning that maintains the temperature.
However, when we bring adult human into picture we see a fourth dimension or dimension of time. This dimension comes from human mind that seeks “self†and disconnects form its life source and turns negative. The time direction and its journey to disorder and destruction are hastened when human mind gets attached to the material power. We are in the edge of time where disorder and destruction is peaking because human mind and its negativity and its attachment to material force are peaking.
Thus the real cause for Global Warming and Climate Change exist in human intervention into ratio of energy/matter of nature. Our reckless intervention into nature without knowing the Truth of Nature has upset the ratio of disordering and ordering cycle of nature in favor of disorder. The Nature is not getting sufficient time and space to convert the heat and energy to matter and thus maintain the temperature of the earth. Consequently the temperature is rising. The free energy of the system is held up as negative energies in space and time.
One of the ways by which nature counters it is by unwinding the space and time. The many worlds collapse and tend to singularity such that it can wind back into new order. The singularity is a transition period. It is a forbidden state. The reality is duality. This is reflected in the design of earth. The earth is balanced and works by duality. When the time directs to singularity the system is forced to collapse and go into new order. This concept of singularity and duality is very much spoken in the ancient spiritual scriptures.
The singularity or breaking of the time cycle and the functioning of earth is creating the shredding force and is the cause of instability of various ecological systems. This is also the cause for the instability of human mind manifesting as war and terrorism. This accumulated energy gets liberated during the phase changes taking place in the climatic cycle. This is contributing to increased natural catastrophes. The accumulated heat or energy and decreased capacity of earth to convert the heat into matter means we are heading to a period where accident due to fire is bound to increase alarmingly. When the climatic cycle changes it also leads to destruction due to huge rain and snow fall. I did predict the increase in precipitation/unit area in unit time leading to catastrophic floods. Read article “Prediction to 2012†We are already witnessing fire and rain related disasters around the world.
The solution to Global Warming and climate change exist in giving space and time for earth to convert energy into matter.
Unless humanity awakens to this Truth of Nature, we will end in paying huge price in the coming years. Some one has to take this Truth to the world for evaluation.
For more information you can read articles in the site “Awakening to Truth†http://sites.google.com/site/awakeningtotruth
I am sharing with you matters that can Change the very foundation of modern man and his thinking and bring him back from disorder and death back to life and order. This simple Truth of Nature can help long way bringing positive result when the intellectuals and leaders meet at Copenhagen to discuss climate change.