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Published online 27 April 2009 |
Nature
| doi:10.1038/news.2009.408
Updated online: 27 April 2009
News
Swine flu outbreak sweeps the globe
Genetic code of new influenza strain could contribute to its rapid spread.
The world is bracing itself for the possible imminent onset of an influenza pandemic — not from the much-feared H5N1 avian flu virus that has spread across Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003, but from a novel H1N1 strain of swine flu whose leap to humans was officially confirmed last week.
Researchers are scrambling to get a better handle on the evolution and spread of the new virus.
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I hope you agree! For a serious pandemonia to occour, you need three things: High mortality, easily transmissionable and long incubation time. We don't know much about the mortality, but as Tashiro Masato says only a few percent will lead to millions of deaths. I think that "only" a few percent is worth taking seriously. It's easily transmissionalbe (unlike the bird-flu)... But it seems like there's a short incubationtime. Then why are people who's been in Mexico not put in quarantine?? For how long is it? Two days? I'm from Demark and I've read that a 50 year old man from Denamrk called a danish hospital saturday or sunday, and told them that, he had symptons like the swine-flu. He was told to wait untill monday, and then contact his usual medical doctor. (He had been in Mexico right before that!) What is going on?? No sort of check-up. People just go home. It's just like Peter, who cried woolf. Nobody takes it serouisly anymore. What is the WHO doing??? I'm not sure, but nobody reacts! Maybe ther's a great risk of a pandemonia, but are we just gonna roll over and hope not to die?!
Having followed H5N1 for years, my concern now is that when this novel H1N1 is epidemic in Indonesia and bumps into H5N1, the resulting superbug becomes the pandemic we've feared. I think this H1N1 is nothing when compared with the H5N1 or H1N1 that will result from the mixing that will occur in Inonesia. I also believe that this must be the REAL unexpressed concern of WHO & CDC. When will this be discussed publicly? Is any org helping Indonesia prevent an H1N1 epidemic?
I am a research fellow at Vanderbilt University. I got sick last week 04/20/09 after a visit of my husband that lives in Mexico city, we are separated since December 2007. I started with all the symptoms described for a common flu, headache, fever higher that 100, muscle pain, strong coughing, weakness, chills, nasal congestion, chest pain, sneezing and mucus production with yellow and a light green color. I got from the pharmacy the normal medicines used for deal with the cough and cold that do not required prescription. After two days I did not feel better and actually the mucus production was stronger and I could not sleep for two days due the chest congestion, so I decided to go to the doctor on Thursday 04/23/09. The medical report concludes that I had flu with a strong pharyngitis and they prescribed me Tussionex suspension. At that time I continue feeling so weak and for me was definitely a not normal kind of flu, I lost my voice totally and I was feeling a general discomfort not comparable with other kind of flu in my life. The next day appear in the news the swine flu and the death cases in Mexico city but I did not connect the idea about the flu that my husband had before the trip and my illness here. I was following the news and reading about the increase of cases and the estimation of death people and infection, so Saturday I decided to write to Vanderbilt occupational health clinic about my case, the visit of my husband and the probable connection between this and trying to know if my flu has not this kind of swine origin. Sunday was released in the news that US declares health emergency. Yesterday (Monday 04/27/09) finally I got a call from the hospital and they decided to check me. They found fever but did not take sample because my illness was longer than 6 days. After this they send me home with the same prescription, no antibiotics, no antivirals, only the tussionex same dosis. I spend some hours at home, weak, coughing, without voice and with some mucus production and congestion. Then the people from the hospital call me again and they had taken a sample from the nose (deeply sample) and they send me home to rest and wait. Today 04/28/09 I still at home, with some of the symptoms that remain like cough, mucus production, some headache and very weak, I have pain in my arms writing this, so, is strange for me to be at this side, understanding the evolution of the news, knowing about bacteria and virus because I am microbiologist and PhD in biochemistry but looking how the people, the government, the countries and different organizations handle the situation understanding that the only that I can do is wait and keep on the news.
Hi Giovaan, I hope you are feeling better, but how about a diary-type log of the development? Did your ex-husband visit you or did you go to Mexico? If the first contact with him counts as Day Zero, on what day did you start with symptoms? How is your ex- doing now, as he will be a number of days ahead of you in this? How many personal contacts have you made since the onset of symptoms? This kind of blog could be very informative, and with your scientific training, I'm sure would be very rational.
Normaly this Swine flue occur in te enviroment, It is supposed to occur a simultaneous infection in the same hostage of the two-tipe influenza swine and human class A. This kind of swine flu has been described in the past in USA, Canada, an Europe as reviewed (Kendall,P. Clin Infect Dis. 2007 April 15; 44(8): 1084?1088) And there is literature of some intends of developing a vaccine since the USA outbreak of 1968-70(in soldiers and swine farmers). Even though, it has repeatedly said that the present outbrake has started on Mexico, it is of major importance that there were two case report of Swine Influenza A H1N1 reported early by positive laboratory test in USA in second mid-March and early April in at least to different states, and at least one week before any case reported on Mexico. As reported the USA CDC Swine Influenza A (H1N1) Infection in Two Children --- Southern California, March--April 2009 accesible en www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov AND IN http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0421a1.htm Regards, MC.Emmanuel Fonseca
I for one am heartenned by the experience with SARS, in which something that easily could have become a serious pandemic was nipped in the bud. This is not to say that this H1N1 flu is not a serious threat, as the 1,600+ people who have been hospitalized in Mexico probably means tens of thousands of actual cases there. Also, if Giovanna's posting is any indication, there are a lot of cases and exposures elsewhere that have yet to be properly identified and tracked. If that is the case, then the cases at that school in NYC may only be the tip of the iceberg. -- Hopefully we can get ahead of this outbreak in much the same way as with SARS. It may not be as easy, but the SARS experience showed that information can outrun a virus any day. Knowing that the patient may not have a normal case of the flu will often make a difference in helping to bottle this virus up.
Interesting article about swine flu, has important data for people working in health...Is there some translation to spanish? Thanks.
Hello Sergio. You can read spanish information from CDC http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/espanol/swine_espanol.htm <- artículo en español Cheers
I am quite surprised that Nature publishes News like this, specially the statement " Swine flu has spread from Mexico to the United States and beyond" , the text doesn?t say much about how the flu has expanded geographically, and there had also been 1 case in the US of A, of a similar virus, that was reported earlier, before any cases in Mex. This could then have mutated with the carrier being someone traveling to Mexico. Also the statements of Tashiro Masato, why not they get in contact with the Mexican health authorities and find out the rates of spread, and the proportions this cloud cause in other populations? is quite silly to wait to have a full population in the US, , when significant numbers already exist.
Hi all, Yes, my ex visited me here In Nashville. Now he is ok but I still a little bit sick, headache, cough, weakness, dizziness and I still without voice. The results from the hospital are not ready yet, two days have pass and I still at home 04/29/09. I can not say that I do not have the swine flu until the test prove it. So, I´m still waiting but today I feel better. Also the possibility that my ex was just a carrier of the virus is possible too even if he is Ok. So, I can not do more.
I got good news, I have just seasonal Flu, not swine flu. Today I feel better, just headache, cough, weakness, dizziness and I still without voice. The medical doctor gave me antibiotics for a subsequent infection. The only thing that I want add is that the results from the swine flu test took too much time, almost 3 days and at the end I did not have a medical report with the final result. Anyway they are doing a second analysis of the sample using RTPCR to be absolutely sure. Also I did not mention that I had pain in my eyes and lost of apetite and nausea, so the symtoms are quite similar between both flu virus. Thanks all for you concern!