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It has been postulated that there is a threshold temperature above which permafrost will reach a global tipping point, causing accelerated thaw and global collapse. Here it is argued that permafrost-thaw feedbacks are dominated by local- to regional-scale processes, but this also means there is no safety margin.
The authors use a mechanistic microclimate model to model the below-canopy conditions for 300,000 tropical forest locations across 30 years. They show that small temperature increases have already resulted in novel temperature regimes across most sites, and highlight areas that may act as refugia.
Long-term monitoring is required to determine whether climate change is having an impact on shallow geohazard frequency and magnitude; however, these records rarely exist. An innovative approach, using tree damage as evidence, suggests climate change has shifted the seasonality of alpine rockfalls as well as increasing their frequency and volume.
Polluted water contributes to water scarcity. Here the authors project water demands, availability and quality under climate and socio-economic changes and show that 56–66% of the global population will be exposed to clean water scarcity at the end of the century.
Our multi-model analysis of international shipping shows the potential for decreasing global annual emissions in the coming decades, up to a reduction of 86% by 2050. Drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia stand out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels.
International maritime shipping accounts for an important proportion of global CO2 emissions, but its role in a world with deep decarbonization has not been thoroughly examined. Through a multi-model comparison, this study reveals the necessity of reducing and stabilizing emissions from this sector in the next few decades.
Carbon removal using carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains controversial. This study finds that cross-border CO2 transport would hinder public acceptance of CCS, associated with the perceived unfairness.
How climate services support on-farm management is not well understood. Here research shows that multi-decadal projections help farmers better identify future climate risks through reducing complexity and psychological distance, although this may be impeded by lack of confidence in data.
Last December saw the inaugural Health Day at a Climate Conference of the Parties (COP) and the announcement of the COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health, marking a substantial step in global recognition of the intersecting crises of climate change and health. Nature Climate Change speaks to Maria Neira, director of the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health at the World Health Organization, about successes and next steps.
Scientists and health professionals acknowledge that climate change is also a health emergency, but responses have been slow. Now, citizens and experts are turning to the courts as a path towards accountability, action and adaptation.
The climate crisis is also an urgent and ongoing health crisis with diverse human impacts leading to physical, mental and cultural losses. Translating knowledge into action involves broad collaboration, which relies heavily on careful communication of a personal and politicized issue.
Climate change is a health emergency, impacting multiple facets of human well-being via direct and indirect pathways. Nature Climate Change asked experts from different health fields to share their thoughts on the urgent issues and possible paths forward.
Projections of Arctic warming have large uncertainties. Here the authors consider ocean heat transport and its contribution to Arctic warming; high-resolution model results show increased Bering Strait transport compared with lower-resolution results, with implications for projected warming rates.
Meeting the Paris Agreement targets requires deep emissions reductions supported by a scale-up in carbon dioxide removal. However, current country-reported mitigation pledges are off track to meet carbon dioxide removal needs, unless countries dramatically reduce emissions consistent with low-energy-demand scenarios.
Carbon dioxide removals (CDR) have been integrated into country-submitted reports under the Paris Agreement. However, this Analysis finds a gap between levels of CDR in these national proposals and the scenarios limiting global warming to the 1.5 °C target.
