Nature Geosci. 8, 135–139 (2015)

Uncertainty about the spatial distribution of future climatic changes is dominated by differences in projections that result from climate model differences. Much of the model variance can be attributed to the representation of climate feedbacks that alter radiative flux by reinforcing, or attenuating, external climate forcing. Constraining this uncertainty requires an understanding of how individual climate feedbacks combine to produce regional and global climate response.

Gerard Roe from the University of Washington, USA, and co-workers investigate how uncertainty in these feedbacks drives uncertainty in the patterns of temperature response. To do this, they employ a simple energy balance model that combines regional feedbacks and the diffusion of latent and sensible heat to emulate the relationship between regional feedbacks and temperature response in more comprehensive climate models. They find that uncertainty in tropical feedbacks affects the global temperature response, but that the impact of uncertainty in polar feedbacks is predominantly confined to these regions.