Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change

Abstract

Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Two worst-case surge events for the Battery, under the NCEP/NCAR climate.
Figure 2: Estimated return levels for the Battery of the storm surge and storm tide for the NCEP/NCAR climate.
Figure 3: Estimated storm tide return levels for the Battery, predicted with each of the four climate models.
Figure 4: Estimated flood return levels for the Battery, predicted with each of the four climate models.

References

  1. Emanuel, K. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326, 483–485 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Emanuel, K. The hurricane–climate connection. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 5, ES10–ES20 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bender, M. A. et al. Model impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327, 454–458 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Knutson, T. R. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geosci. 3, 157–163 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Powell, M. D. & Reinhold, T. A. Tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetic energy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 513–526 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Resio, D. T. & Westerink, J. J. Hurricanes and the physics of surges. Phys. Today 61, 33–38 (September 2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Rego, J. L. & Li, C. On the importance of the forward speed of hurricanes in storm surge forecasting: A numerical study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07609 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Irish, J. L. & Resio, D. T. A hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricanes. Ocean Eng. 37, 69–81 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Irish, J. L., Resio, D. T. & Ratcliff, J. J. The Influence of storm size on hurricane surge. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 38, 2003–2013 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Resio, D. T., Irish, J. L. & Cialone, M. A. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 1: Basic concepts. Nat. Hazard. 51, 163–182 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Irish, J. L., Cialone, M. A. & Resio, D. T. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes. Nat. Hazard. 51, 83–205 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Knutson, T. R., Sirutis, J. J., Garner, S. T., Held, I. M. & Tuleya, R. E. Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1549–1565 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Knutson, T. R, Sirutis, J. J., Garner, S. T., Vecchi, G. A. & Held, I. M. Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geosci. 1, 359–364 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Nicholls, R. J. Coastal megacities and climate change. Geo. J. 37, 369–379 (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Rosenzweig, C. & Solecki, W. Chapter 1: New York City adaptation in context. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 1196, 19–28 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Rosenzweig, C., Solecki, W., Hammer, S. A. & Mehrotra, S. Cities lead the way in climate-change action. Nature 467, 909–911 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. & Risi, C. A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 299–314 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Emanuel, K., Sundararajan, R. & Williams, J. Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 347–367 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Emanuel, K., Oouchi, K., Satoh, M., Hirofumi, T. & Yamada, Y. Comparison of explicitly simulated and downscaled tropical cyclone activity in a high-resolution global climate model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys. 2, 9 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

  22. Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann, C. J. & Davis, M. A. S. A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886–1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses NOAA Tech. Memo NWS NHC 22 (NOAA/Tropical Prediction Center, 1984).

  23. Villarini, G., Vecchi, G. A., Knutson, T. R., Zhao, M. & Smith, J. A. North Atlantic tropical storm frequency response to anthropogenic forcing: Projections and sources of uncertainty. J. Clim. 24, 3224–3238 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Luettich, R. A., Westerink, J. J. & Scheffner, N. W. ADCIRC: An Advanced Three-dimensional Circulation Model for Shelves, Coasts and Estuaries, Report 1: Theory and Methodology of ADCIRC-2DDI and ADCIRC-3DL DRP Technical Report DRP-92-6. (Department of the Army, US Army Corps of Engineers, Waterways Experiment Station, 1992).

  25. Westerink, J. J., Luettich, R. A., Blain, C. A. & Scheffner, N. W. ADCIRC: An Advanced Three-Dimensional Circulation Model for Shelves, Coasts and Estuaries; Report 2: Users Manual for ADCIRC-2DDI (Department of the Army, US Army Corps of Engineers, 1994).

  26. Jelesnianski, C. P., Chen, J. & Shaffer, W. A. SLOSH: Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (NOAA Tech. Report NWS 48, 1992).

  27. Jarvinen, B. R. & Lawrence, M. B. Evaluation of the SLOSH storm-surge model. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 66, 1408–1411 (1985).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Jarvinen, B. & Gebert, J. Comparison of Observed versus SLOSH Model Computed Storm Surge Hydrographs along the Delaware and New Jersey Shorelines for Hurricane Gloria, September 1985 (US Department of Commerce, National Hurricane Center, 1986).

  29. Westerink, J. J. et al. A basin- to channel-scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model applied to southern Louisiana. Mon. Weath. Rev. 136, 833–864 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Colle, B. A. et al. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 829–841 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lin, N., Smith, J. A., Villarini, G., Marchok, T. P. & Baeck, M. L. Modeling extreme rainfall, winds, and surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003). Weath. Forecasting 25, 1342–1361 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Dietrich, J. C. et al. Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally-coupled, scalable computations. Coast. Eng. 58, 45–65 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Emanuel, K. & Rotunno, R. Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow. Part I: Implications for storm structure. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 2236–2249 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Georgiou, P. N., Davenport, A. G. & Vickery, B. J. Design windspeeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 13, 139–159 (1983).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Bretschneider, C. L. A Non-dimensional Stationary Hurricane Wave Model Vol. I, 51–68 (Proc. Offshore Technology Conference, 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Holland, G. J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Weath. Rev. 108, 1212–1218 (1980).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Scileppi, E. & Donnelly, J. P. Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 8, 1–25 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Coles, S. An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values (Springer, 2001).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  39. Lin, N., Emanuel, K. A., Smith, J. A. & Vanmarcke, E. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D18121 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Horton, R. M. et al. Climate hazard assessment for stakeholder adaptation planning in New York City. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 50, 2247–2266 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Colle, B. A., Rojowsky, K. & Buonaiuto, F. New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 49, 85–100 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Chavas, D. R. & Emanuel, K. A. A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L18816 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Emanuel, K. A. An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 585–605 (1986).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Emanuel, K. Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J. Clim. 20, 5497–5509 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Gornitz, V., Couch, S. & Hartig, E. K. Impacts of sea level rise in the New York City metropolitan area. Glob. Planet. Change 32, 61–88 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Yin, J., Schlesinger, M. E. & Stouffer, R. J. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature Geosci. 2, 262–266 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  47. Horton, R., Gornitz, V. & Bowman, M. Chapter 3: Climate observations and projections. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 1196, 41–62 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Hunter, J. Estimating sea-level extremes under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. Climatic Change 99, 331–350 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Mousavi, M. E., Irish, J. L., Frey, A. E., Olivera, F. & Edge, B. L. Global warming and hurricanes: The potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding. Climatic Change 104, 575–597 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Hoffman, R. N. et al. An estimate of increases in storm surge risk to property from sea level rise in the first half of the twenty-first century. Weath. Clim. Soc. 2, 271–293 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

N.L. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and the Princeton Environmental Institute and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs for the Science, Technology and Environmental Policy fellowship. We acknowledge the National Science Foundation and the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory computational support. We thank J. Westerink and S. Tanaka of the University of Notre Dame for their support on the ADCIRC implementation. We also thank B. Colle of Stony Brook University for providing us with the high-resolution ADCIRC mesh.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

All authors contributed extensively to the work presented in this paper, and all contributed to the writing, with N.L. being the lead author.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ning Lin.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests. However, in the interests of transparency we confirm that one of us, Kerry Emanuel, is on the boards of two property and casualty companies: Homesite and Bunker Hill, and also on the board of the AlphaCat Fund, an investment fund dealing with re-insurance transactions. In all three cases, Dr Emanuel receives fixed fees but owns no stocks or shares. Dr Emanuel does not stand to make any personal financial gain through these directorships as a consequence of the reported findings.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Oppenheimer, M. et al. Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Clim Change 2, 462–467 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1389

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1389

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing