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Adapting to dynamic and uncertain climates

Latest Research

  • Perspective |

    Near-term climate predictions bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term projections. This Perspective outlines the challenges and opportunities for near-term climate prediction, highlighting the need for co-ordinated efforts to benefit society.

    • Yochanan Kushnir
    • , Adam A. Scaife
    • , Raymond Arritt
    • , Gianpaolo Balsamo
    • , George Boer
    • , Francisco Doblas-Reyes
    • , Ed Hawkins
    • , Masahide Kimoto
    • , Rupa Kumar Kolli
    • , Arun Kumar
    • , Daniela Matei
    • , Katja Matthes
    • , Wolfgang A. Müller
    • , Terence O’Kane
    • , Judith Perlwitz
    • , Scott Power
    • , Marilyn Raphael
    • , Akihiko Shimpo
    • , Doug Smith
    • , Matthias Tuma
    •  & Bo Wu
  • Review Article |

    In this Review, a Bayesian framework is used to explain climate change belief updating, and the evidence required to support claims of directional motivated reasoning versus a model in which people aim for accurate beliefs, but vary in how they assess information credibility.

    • James N. Druckman
    •  & Mary C. McGrath
  • Letter |

    As the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean has warmed, the distribution of a key species, Antarctic krill, has contracted southwards. This has occurred in tandem with a decline in recruitment of juveniles, linked to increasingly positive anomalies of the Southern Annular Mode.

    • Angus Atkinson
    • , Simeon L. Hill
    • , Evgeny A. Pakhomov
    • , Volker Siegel
    • , Christian S. Reiss
    • , Valerie J. Loeb
    • , Deborah K. Steinberg
    • , Katrin Schmidt
    • , Geraint A. Tarling
    • , Laura Gerrish
    •  & Sévrine F. Sailley
  • Letter |

    Groundwater model results and hydrologic data sets reveal that half of global groundwater fluxes may equilibrate with climate-driven recharge variations on human timescales, indicating that hydraulic memory may buffer climatic change impacts.

    • M. O. Cuthbert
    • , T. Gleeson
    • , N. Moosdorf
    • , K. M. Befus
    • , A. Schneider
    • , J. Hartmann
    •  & B. Lehner
  • Article |

    Arctic sea-ice melt causes a release of dissolved organic material (DOM) into the surface waters. The increased dominance of first-year ice and DOM release is impacting under-ice bacterial communities.

    • Graham J. C. Underwood
    • , Christine Michel
    • , Guillaume Meisterhans
    • , Andrea Niemi
    • , Claude Belzile
    • , Matthias Witt
    • , Alex J. Dumbrell
    •  & Boris P. Koch
  • Perspective |

    This Perspective synthesizes research on the origins and impacts of scientific misinformation campaigns, pointing to public inoculation, legal, political and financial strategies for countering climate change misinformation and limiting its dissemination.

    • Justin Farrell
    • , Kathryn McConnell
    •  & Robert Brulle

News & Comment

  • News & Views |

    In the Southern Ocean, climate-driven contraction of Antarctic krill from open ocean toward the frozen continent is a perilous journey. Research now shows that a poleward shift in distribution is accompanied by diminished spatial less habitat, lower densities and larger mean size of adults.

    • Margaret M. McBride
  • News & Views |

    Climate change adaptation encompasses a wide range of behaviours in response to a variety of short- and long-term risks. Now meta-analyses identify which motivational factors are consistent predictors of adaptation action, and which are more context-specific.

    • Andrea Louise Taylor
  • Editorial |

    To achieve the Paris climate goals, the private sector and sub-national governments need to fill the void left by unambitious national government efforts.

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