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Nature 460, 687 (6 August 2009) | doi:10.1038/460687a; Published online 5 August 2009

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Modelling to contain pandemics

Joshua M. Epstein1

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Agent-based computational models can capture irrational behaviour, complex social networks and global scale — all essential in confronting H1N1, says Joshua M. Epstein.

As the world braces for an autumn wave of swine flu (H1N1), the relatively new technique of agent-based computational modelling is playing a central part in mapping the disease's possible spread, and designing policies for its mitigation.Classical epidemic modelling, which began in the 1920s, was built on differential equations.