Geophys. Res. Lett. doi:10.1029/2008GL034813 (2008)

Ice export through the Fram Strait east of Greenland is a crucial determinant of recent Arctic sea-ice loss.

Lars Smedsrud and his colleagues evaluated three factors behind this spectacular ice loss. Since 1990, atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic has declined. More oceanic heat transport contributed to ice loss but, say the researchers, increased ice export was more important, especially in 2007–08.

If oceanic heat transport and ice export decrease, Arctic sea ice could remain robust. But if current patterns continue or strengthen, combined with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, a seasonally ice-free Arctic is possible within decades.