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Nature 438, E11 (22 December 2005) | doi:10.1038/nature04426; Published online 21 December 2005

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Meteorology: Are there trends in hurricane destruction?

Roger A. Pielke, Jr1

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Arising from: K. Emanuel Nature 436, 686–688 (2005); K. Emanuel reply.

Since the record impact of Hurricane Katrina, attention has focused on understanding trends in hurricanes and their destructive potential. Emanuel1 reports a marked increase in the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on identification of a trend in an accumulated annual index of power dissipation in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific since the 1970s. If hurricanes are indeed becoming more destructive over time, then this trend should manifest itself in more destruction. However, my analysis of a long-term data set of hurricane losses in the United States shows no upward trend once the data are normalized to remove the effects of societal changes.

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