Abstract

All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate—for example, on the frequency of heatwaves—this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability—predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions—are likely to be severe.

1. Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093, USA
2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195-2700, USA

Correspondence to: T. P. Barnett¹D. P. Lettenmaier³ Correspondence should be addressed to T.P.B. (Email: timdotbarnett@ucsd.edu) or D.P.L. (Email: dennisl@u.washington.edu).

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