1. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538,
2. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA
4. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia

Correspondence to: John A. Church^1,2 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.A.C. (Email: John.Church@csiro.au).

Abstract

Ocean thermal expansion contributes significantly to sea-level variability and rise¹. However, observed decadal variability in ocean heat content^{2, 3} and sea level⁴ has not been reproduced well in climate models⁵. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during volcanic eruptions scatter incoming solar radiation, and cause a rapid cooling of the atmosphere^{6, 7} and a reduction in rainfall^{6, 8, 9}, as well as other changes in the climate system⁷. Here we use observations of ocean heat content^{2, 3} and a set of climate simulations to show that large volcanic eruptions result in rapid reductions in ocean heat content and global mean sea level. For the Mt Pinatubo eruption, we estimate a reduction in ocean heat content of about 3 10²² J and a global sea-level fall of about 5 mm. Over the three years following such an eruption, we estimate a decrease in evaporation of up to 0.1 mm d^-1, comparable to observed changes in mean land precipitation^{6, 8, 9}. The recovery of sea level following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 explains about half of the difference between the long-term rate of sea-level rise⁴ of 1.8 mm yr^-1 (for 1950–2000), and the higher rate estimated for the more recent period where satellite altimeter data are available (1993–2000)^{4, 10}.

1. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538,
2. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA
4. Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia

Correspondence to: John A. Church^1,2 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.A.C. (Email: John.Church@csiro.au).

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