Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years

Nature volume 428, pages 733–736 (2004)Cite this article

Abstract

Forecasts of El Niño climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Niño predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the predictability is largely limited by the effects of high-frequency atmospheric ‘noise’1,2,3,4,5,6,7, whereas others emphasize limitations arising from the growth of initial errors in model simulations8,9,10. Here we present retrospective forecasts of the interannual climate fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1857 to 2003, using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. The model successfully predicts all prominent El Niño events within this period at lead times of up to two years. Our analysis suggests that the evolution of El Niño is controlled to a larger degree by self-sustaining internal dynamics than by stochastic forcing. Model-based prediction of El Niño therefore depends more on the initial conditions than on unpredictable atmospheric noise. We conclude that throughout the past century, El Niño has been more predictable than previously envisaged.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Retrospective predictions of El Niño and La Niña in the past 148 yr.
Figure 2: Anomaly correlations and r.m.s. errors between the observed and the predicted values of the NINO3.4 index.
Figure 3: Six of the largest El Niños since 1856.
Figure 4: Correlations between observed and predicted NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the 1856–2003 period.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Fedorov, A. V., Harper, S. L., Philander, S. G., Winter, B. & Wittenberg, A. How predictable is El Niño? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 911–919 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Penland, C. & Sardeshmukh, P. D. The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Clim. 8, 1999–2024 (1995)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Moore, A. M. & Kleeman, R. Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Clim. 12, 1199–1220 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Thompson, C. J. & Battisti, D. S. A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: Model development. J. Clim. 13, 2818–2832 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Perigaud, C. M. & Cassou, C. Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 389–392 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. McPhaden, M. J. & Yu, X. Equatorial waves and the 1997/98 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2961–2964 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Boulanger, J. P. et al. Role of non-linear oceanic processes in the response to westerly wind events: New implications for the 1997 El Niño onset. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1603–1606 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Goswami, B. N. & Shukla, J. Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 4, 3–22 (1991)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Chen, D., Zebiak, S. E., Busalacchi, A. J. & Cane, M. A. An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: implications for predictability. Science 269, 1699–1702 (1995)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Xue, Y., Cane, M. A. & Zebiak, S. E. Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles. Mon. Weath. Rev 125, 2043–2056 (1997)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Barnston, A. G., Glantz, M. H. & He, Y. X. Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997/98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 217–243 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Kaplan, A. et al. Analysis of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 18567–18589 (1998)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Chang, P., Ji, L., Li, H. & Flugel, M. Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Physica D 98, 301–320 (1996)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Latif, M. et al. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14375–14393 (1998)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Zebiak, S. E. & Cane, M. A. A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115, 2262–2278 (1987)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E. & Dolan, S. C. Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321, 827–832 (1986)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Jin, F. F., Neelin, J. D. & Ghil, M. El Niño on the devil's staircase — annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264, 70–72 (1994)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Tziperman, E., Stone, L., Cane, M. A. & Jarosh, H. El Niño chaos: overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science 264, 72–74 (1994)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Zebiak, S. E. On the 30–60 day oscillation and the prediction of El Niño. J. Clim. 2, 1381–1387 (1989)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Kirtman, B. P. & Schopf, P. S. Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J. Clim. 11, 2804–2822 (1998)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Balmaseda, M. A., Davey, M. K. & Anderson, D. L. T. Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Clim. 8, 2705–2715 (1995)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Davis, M. Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World (Verso Books, New York, 2002)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Goddard, L. et al. Current approaches to climate prediction. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1111–1152 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Jin, F. F. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 811–829 (1997)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Meinen, C. S. & McPhaden, M. J. Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J. Clim. 13, 3551–3559 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. McPhaden, M. J. Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistent barriers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, doi:10.1029/2003GL016872 (2003)

  27. Kessler, W. S. EOF representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its connection with ENSO. J. Clim. 14, 3055–3061 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Smith, T. M. & Reynolds, R. W. Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997). J. Clim. 16, 1495–1510 (2003)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Rayner, N. A. et al. Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature, 1871–2000. J. Geophys. Res. 108, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670 (2003)

  30. Chen, D., Cane, M. A., Zebiak, S. E., Canizares, R. & Kaplan, A. Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2585–2588 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This Letter was written during the sabbatical leave of D.C. at the Laboratory of Ocean Dynamic Processes and Satellite Oceanography, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou, China. This work was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, 10964, USA

    Dake Chen, Mark A. Cane, Alexey Kaplan & Stephen E. Zebiak

  2. Laboratory of Ocean Dynamic Processes and Satellite Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, China

    Dake Chen & Daji Huang

Authors
  1. Dake Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mark A. Cane
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Alexey Kaplan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Stephen E. Zebiak
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Daji Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dake Chen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chen, D., Cane, M., Kaplan, A. et al. Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428, 733–736 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02439

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02439

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing