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Nature 428, 709-711 (15 April 2004) | doi:10.1038/428709a

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Meteorology: Testing time for El Niño

David Anderson1

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Analyses that largely exploit indirect data from the past 150 years show that El Niño and La Niña might be more predictable than was thought. The results presage the prospect of extended climate forecasts.

Some of the worst famines in history were those of around 1877, a period in which perhaps 40 million people died in India and China1. This and later disasters inspired meteorologists to try to predict whether the monsoon rains would be plentiful or sparse.

  1. David Anderson is at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK.
    e-mail: Email: david.anderson@ecmwf.int