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Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations

Nature volume 393, pages 257–260 (1998)Cite this article

Abstract

Population biologists have long been interested in the variability of natural populations1,2,3,4,5,6. One approach to dealing with ecological complexity is to reduce the system to one or a few species, for which meaningful equations can be solved. Here we explore an alternative approach7,8 by studying the statistical properties of a data set containing over 600 species, namely the North American breeding bird survey9. The survey has recorded annual species abundances over a 31-year period along more than 3,000 observation routes10. We now analyse the dynamics of population variability using this data set, and find scaling features in common with inanimate systems composed of strongly interacting subunits11. Specifically, we find that the distribution of changes in population abundance over a one-year interval is remarkably symmetrical, with long tails extending over six orders of magnitude. The variance of the population over a time series increases as a power-law with increasing time lag, indicating long-range correlation in population size fluctuations12. We also find that the distribution of species lifetimes (the time between colonization and local extinction) within local patches is a power-law with an exponential cutoff imposed by the finite length of the time series. Our results provide a quantitative basis for modelling the dynamics of large species assemblages.

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Figure 1: Scaling of population growth rates in the NA BBS data set.
Figure 2: Scaling of local species' lifetimes in the NA BBS data set.

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Acknowledgements

This work was partially supported by the Santa Fe Institute, Thaw Foundation and National Science Foundation. We thank B. Peterjohn and the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of the Interior, for providing the NA BBS data in digital form, and L. A. N. Amaral, P.Bak, J. H. Brown, P. A. Marquet, B. Maurer, R. M. May, B. T. Milne, M. Paczuski, B. Peterjohn, S.L.Pimm, R. V. Solé and M. Taper for their comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, 87501, New Mexico, USA

    Timothy H. Keitt

  2. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, 93101, California, USA

    Timothy H. Keitt

  3. Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, 02215, USA

    H. Eugene Stanley

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Correspondence to Timothy H. Keitt.

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Keitt, T., Stanley, H. Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations. Nature 393, 257–260 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1038/30478

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