1. Greig Fester Centre for Hazard Research, Research School of Geological and Geophysical Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
2. Neotectonics Research Centre, Department of Geography & Earth Sciences, Brunel University, Isleworth, Middlesex TW7 5DU, UK
3. Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
4. Department of Civil Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Imperial College Road, London SW7 2BU, UK

Correspondence to: W. J. McGuire¹ Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to W.J.McG. (e-mail: Email: w.mcguire@ucl.ac.uk).

Abstract

Volcanic activity has frequently been linked to Quaternary environmental change, either by driving climate modification¹,² or in response to environmental changes³. Although a link has been established between large explosive eruptions and small (0.5 °C), brief (1–2 years) falls in global temperatures⁴, both the evidence and mechanisms responsible for longer episodes of eruption-induced planetary cooling remain questionable¹,²,⁵,⁶. In contrast, recent research based on ice-core data suggests that rapid climate changes during the past 110,000 years increased explosive volcanic activity⁷. Here we present a statistical analysis relating the frequency of explosive activity of Mediterranean volcanoes — based on dated^{8, 9, 10, 11} tephra layers in deep-sea sediment cores — to the rate of late Quaternary sea-level change. The nonlinear correlation between the two is tentatively explained in terms of dynamic responses of the volcanoes to stress-related influences on various spatial scales. The correlation supports a mechanism or mechanisms by which the climate-driven growth and decay of large ice sheets can influence the eruptive chronologies of distant volcanic edifices via changes in global sea level.