Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Occurrence patterns of foreshocks to large earthquakes in the western United States

Nature volume 381, pages 303–307 (1996)Cite this article

Abstract

OBSERVATIONS of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes provide one of the few well documented cases of premonitory events that are clearly related to a subsequent earthquake. Unfortunately, the apparent randomness of foreshock occurrence—they precede some events and not others—has severely hampered their use in reliable earthquake prediction. Understanding the factors that control foreshock occurrence is critical for determining how large earthquakes initiate and whether reliable short-term prediction will ever be possible1. Here we report the results of a comprehensive study of the occurrence patterns of foreshocks to large earthquakes in the western United States. The incidence of foreshocks decreases with increasing depth of the mainshock, and also depends on the mainshock slip orientation. This pattern of occurrence may be explained by a decrease in small-scale crustal heterogeneity with increasing depth, and suggests that increasing normal stress (both regional tectonic stress and lithostatic load) inhibits the occurrence of foreshocks. No relationship is observed between any aspect of foreshock occurrence and the magnitude of the subsequent mainshock, suggesting that the eventual size of the mainshock may be independent of the earthquake nucleation process, or that foreshocks are not part of this process.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Brune, J. N. J. geophys. Res. 84, 2195–2198 (1979).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Mogi, K. Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. 41, 615–658 (1963).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Dieterich, J. H. J. geophys. Res. 84, 2161–2168 (1979).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Ohnaka, M. Tectonophysics 211, 149–178 (1992).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Jones, L. M. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 74, 1361–1380 (1984).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Jones, L. M. & Molnar, P. J. geophys. Res. 84, 3596–3608 (1979).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Doser, D. I. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 80, 110–128 (1989).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Jones, L. M. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 75, 1669–1679 (1985).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Savage, M. K. & dePolo, D. M. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 83, 1910–1938 (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Sibson, R. H. Nature 249, 542–544 (1974).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Mori, J. & Abercrombie, R. E. Eos (suppl.) 76, F388 (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Marone, C. & Kilgore, B. Nature 362, 618–621 (1993).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Scholz, C. H. Nature 336, 761–763 (1988).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Dieterich, J. H. in Earthquake Source Mechanics (eds Das, S., Boatwright, J. & Scholz, C.) 37–47 (Am. Geophys. Un., Washington DC, 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Dodge, D. A., Beroza, G. C. & Ellsworth, W. L. J. geophys. Res. 100, 9865–9880 (1995).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Jones, L. M., Console, R., Di Luccio, F. & Murro, M. Eos (suppl.) 76, F388 (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Abercrombie, R. E. & Mori, J. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 84, 725–734 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Ellsworth, W. L. & Beroza, G. C. Science 268, 851–855 (1995).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Wyatt, F. K., Agnew, D. C. & Gladwin, M. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 84, 768–779 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Dieterich, J. H. Tectonophysics 211, 115–134 (1992).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Kanamori, H. & Fuis, G. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 66, 2017–2037 (1976).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Langston, C. A. & Butler, R. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 66, 1111–1120 (1976).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Corbett, E. J. & Johnson, C. E. Bull, seism. Soc. Am. 72, 2201–2226 (1982).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Somerville, M. R., Peppin, W. A. & VanWormer, J. D. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 70, 1547–1555 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Peppin, W. A., Honjas, W., Sommerville, M. R. & Vetter, U. R. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 79, 67–76 (1989).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Hauksson, E. & Salvidar, G. V. J. geophys. Res. 94, 9591–9606 (1989).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. VanWormer, J. D. & Ryall, A. S. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 70, 1557–1572 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Hutton, L. K. et al. Calif. Geol. 33, 110–114 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Liu, H.-L. & Helmberger, D. V. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 73, 201–218 (1983).

    Google Scholar 

  30. dePolo, C. M., Peppin, W. A. & Johnson, P. A. Tectonophysics 225, 271–299 (1993).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Silva, P. & Masuda, T. J. geophys. Res. 90, 7639–7651 (1985).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  32. Bolt, B. A., McEvilly, T. V. & Urhammer, R. A. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 71, 451–463 (1981).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Given, J. W. thesis, California Inst. Technol. (1983).

  34. Ekström, G. & Dziewonski, A. M. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 75, 23–39 (1985).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Vetter, U. R. & Ryall, A. S. J. geophys. Res. 88, 8237–8250 (1983).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  36. Frez, J. & Gonzalez, J. J. The Gulf and Peninsular Provinces of the Californias (Memoir 47, Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol., Tulsa, Oklahoma, 1991).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Eaton, J. P. Prof. Pap. U. S. geol. Surv. 1487, 113–170 (1990).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Oppenheimer, D. H., Reasenberg, P. A. & Simpson, R. W. J. geophys. Res. 93, 9007–9026 (1988).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  39. Ekström, G., Stein, R. S., Eaton, J. P. & Eberhart-Phillips, D. J. geophys. Res. 97, 4843–4864 (1992).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  40. Zhou, Y., McNally, K. C. & Lay, T. Phys. Earth planet. Inter. 75, 267–288 (1993).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  41. Jones, L. M., Hutton, L. K., Given, D. G. & Allen, C. R. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 76, 1830–1837 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Hauksson, E. & Jones, L. M. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 78, 1885–1906 (1988).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Hauksson, E. & Jones, L. M. J. geophys. Res. 94, 9569–9589 (1989).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  44. Magistrate, H., Jones, L. M. & Kanamori, H. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 79, 239–251 (1989).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Sipkin, S. A. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 79, 493–499 (1989).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Hauksson, E. J. geophys. Res. 95, 15365–15394 (1990).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  47. Wald, D. J., Helmberger, D. V. & Heaton, T. H. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 81, 1540–1572 (1991).

    Google Scholar 

  48. Beroza, G. C. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 81, 1603–1621 (1991).

    Google Scholar 

  49. Hauksson, E. & Jones, L. M. J. geophys. Res. 96, 8143–8165 (1991).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  50. Horton, S. P., dePolo, D. M. & Walter, W. R. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. (in the press).

  51. Hauksson, E. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 84, 1058–1074 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Velasco, A. A., Ammon, C. J. & Lay, T. J. geophys. Res. 99, 711–728 (1994).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  53. Hauksson, E., Jones, L. M., Hutton, L. K. & Eberhart-Phillips, D. J. geophys. Res. 98, 19835–19858 (1993).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  54. Oppenheimer, D. et al. Science 261, 433–438 (1993).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  55. Hauksson, E., Jones, L. M. & Hutton, L. K. J. geophys. Res. 100, 12335–12355 (1995).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  56. Dixon, W. J. & Massey, F. J. Introduction to Statistical Analysis 119 (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1969).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Author notes

  1. Rachel E. Abercrombie

    Present address: Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Kelbum Research Centre, 32 Salamanca Road, PO Box 1320, Wellington, New Zealand

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 90089, USA

    Rachel E. Abercrombie

  2. US Geological Survey, Pasadena, California, USA

    Jim Mori

Authors
  1. Rachel E. Abercrombie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jim Mori
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Abercrombie, R., Mori, J. Occurrence patterns of foreshocks to large earthquakes in the western United States. Nature 381, 303–307 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/381303a0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/381303a0

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing