Abstract
THE worldwide loss and fragmentation of natural habitats1has led to considerable theory on metapopulation dynamics2á¤-8. One modelling approach, using structured population models9,10, predicts that metapopulations in which local dynamics are affected by migration may have alternative stable equilibria11á¤-17. We have tested this prediction with extensive data on the butterfly Melitaea cinxia18,19. Here we show that the probability of local extinction decreases with increasing population size and increasing immigration rate, and that local populations tend to be larger in regions with higher density of extant populations19, results consistent with model assumptions and predictions13,17. Our results exhibit a bifurcation pattern indicating multiple equilibria14, with a strikingly bimodal distribution of the fraction of occupied habitat in 65 semi-independent patch networks. These results help to explain observations of species occupying either most, or very little, of the suitable habitat in well-connected patch networks14,20,21. Metapopulations with multiple equilibria may collapse unexpectedly to extinction even in landscapes degrading only slowly. Multiple equilibria make it difficult to predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes.
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Hanski, I., Pöyry, J., Pakkala, T. et al. Multiple equilibria in metapopulation dynamics. Nature 377, 618–621 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1038/377618a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/377618a0
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