Nature 363, 234 - 240 (20 May 1993); doi:10.1038/363234a0

Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

Jerry M. Melillo^*, A. David McGuire^*, David W. Kicklighter^*, Berrien Moore^†, Charles J. Vorosmarty^† & Annette L. Schloss^†

^* The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
^† Complex Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824, USA

A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric C0₂ concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of C0₂ doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by C0₂, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

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