Nature 361, 335 - 337 (28 January 1993); doi:10.1038/361335a0

Absence of evidence for greenhouse warming over the Arctic Ocean in the past 40 years

Jonathan D. Kahl^*, Donna J. Charlevoix^*, Nina A. Zaftseva^†, Russell C. Schnell^‡ & Mark C. Serreze^§

^*Department of Geosciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, PO Box 413, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201, USA
^†Central Aerological Observatory, State Committee for Hydrometeorology, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, 141700, Russia
^‡Mauna Loa Observatory, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hilo, Hawaii 96721-0275, USA
^§Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Division of Cryospheric and Polar Processes, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0449, USA

ATMOSPHERIC general circulation models predict enhanced greenhouse warming at high latitudes¹ owing to positive feedbacks between air temperature, ice extent and surface albedo^2–4. Previous analyses of Arctic temperature trends have been restricted to land-based measurements on the periphery of the Arctic Ocean^5,6. Here we present temperatures measured in the lower troposphere over the Arctic Ocean during the period 1950–90. We have analysed more than 27,000 temperature profiles, measured by radiosonde at Russian drifting ice stations and by dropsonde from US 'Ptarmigan' weather reconnaissance aircraft, for trends as a function of season and altitude. Most of the trends are not statistically significant. In particular, we do not observe the large surface warming trends predicted by models; indeed, we detect significant surface cooling trends over the western Arctic Ocean during winter and autumn. This discrepancy suggests that present climate models do not adequately incorporate the physical processes that affect the polar regions.

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