Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate

Abstract

THE recent rise in global-mean surface air temperature is widely thought to be the result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases1–3, but there are discrepancies between the predicted response of the atmosphere to this radiative forcing and the observed temperature changes1–5. Solar irradiance fluctuations have been proposed as a possible explanation for these discrepancies, and various solar properties (for example, radius6, smoothed sunspot number7 or cycle length8) have been suggested as proxies for solar irradiance variations in the absence of direct data. Here we model the effects of a combination of greenhouse and solar-cycle-length forcing and compare the results with observed temperatures. We find that this forcing combination can explain many features of the temperature record, although the results must be interpreted cautiously; even with optimized solar forcing, most of the recent warming trend is explained by greenhouse forcing.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J. (eds) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).

  2. Hansen, J. E. & Lacis, A. A. Nature 346, 713–719 (1990).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. in Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy (eds Jäger, J. & Ferguson, H. L.) 231–242 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1991)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. Nature 330, 127–131 (1987).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. Nature 344, 324–327 (1990).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Gilliland, R. L. Clim. Change 4, 111–131 (1982).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Reid, G. C. Nature 329, 142–143 (1987).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Friis-Christensen, E. & Lessen, K. Science 254, 698–700 (1991).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R. & Vinnikov, K. Ya. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J.) 195–238 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Folland, C. K. et al. in Climate Change 1992: Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Varney, S. K.) 135–170 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Kelly, P. M. & Wigley, T. M. L. Nature 347, 460–462 (1990).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Shine, K. P., Derwent, R. G., Wuebbles, D. J. & Morcrette, J-J. in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton J. T., Jenkins G. J., & Ephraums, J. J.) 41–68 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B., Nature 357, 293–300 (1992).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Isaksen, I. S. A. et al. in Climate Change 1992: Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Varney, S. K.) 47–67 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Wigley, T. M. L. & Kelly, P. M. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 330, 547–560 (1990).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Baliunas, S. & Jastrow, R. Nature 348, 520–523 (1990).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L. & Farmer, G. in Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations (ed. Schlesinger, M. E.) 153–172 (Elsevier, 1991).

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kelly, P., Wigley, T. Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate. Nature 360, 328–330 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1038/360328a0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/360328a0

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing