Abstract
Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals' joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
1. Molina, M. J. & Rowland, F. S. Nature 249, 810-812 (1974). 2. Cicerone, R. J., Stolarski, R. S. & Walters, S. Science 185, 1165-1167 (1974). 3. Stolarski, R. S. Am. Stat. 36, 303-311 (1982). 4. Prather, M. J., McElroy, M. B. & Wofsy, S. C. Nature 312, 227-231 (1984). 5. Dickinson, R. E. & Cicerone, R. J. Nature 319, 109-115 (1986). 6. Wuebbles, D. J. J. geophys. Res. 88, 1433-1443 (1983). 7. Palmer, A. R., Mooz, W. E., Quinn, T. H. & Wolf, K. A. Economic Implications of Regulating Chlorofluorocarbon Emissions from Nonaerosol Applications R-2524-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1980). 8. Mooz, W. E. et al. Technical Options for Reducing Chlorofluorocarbon Emissions R-2879-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1982). 9. Camm, F. et al. Social Cost of Technical Control Options to Reduce Emissions of Potential Ozone Depleters in the United States: An Update N-2440-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1986). 10. Hammitt, J. K. Timing Regulations to Prevent Stratospheric-Ozone Depletion R-3495-JMO/RC (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1987). 11. Camm, F. & Hammitt, J. K. An Analytic Method for Constructing Scenarios from a Subjective Joint Probability Distribution N-2442-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1986). 12. Hammitt, J. K. et al. Product Uses and Market Trends for Potential Ozone-Depleting Substances, 1985-2000 R-3386-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1986). 13. Kohler, D. F., Haaga, J. & Camm, F. Projections of Consumption of Products Using Chloro-fluorocarbons in Developing Countries N-2458-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1987). 14. Quinn, T. H. et al. Projected Use, Emissions and Banks of Potential Ozone Depleting Substances N-2282-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1986). 15. Chemical Manufacturers Association Production, Sales and Calculated Release ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 through 1985 (Chemical Manufactures Association, Washington DC, 1986). 16. Khalil, M. A. K. & Rasmussen, R. A. J. Air Pollut. Control Ass. 36, 159-163 (1986). 17. Connell, P. S. & Wuebbles, D. J. Ozone Perturbations in the LLNL One-Dimensional Model-Calculated Effects of Projected Trends in CFCs, CH4, CO2, N2O, and Halons over 90 Years UCRL-95548 (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 1986). 18. World Meteorological Organization Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling its Present Distribution and Change Report No. 16 (Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Washington DC, 1986). 19. DeMore, W. B. (ed.) Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling Publication 85-37 (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, 1985). 20. Edmonds, J. A., Reilly, J., Trabalka, J. R. & Reichle, D. E. An Analysis of Possible Future Atmospheric Retention of Fossil Fuel CO2 Technical Report TR013 (US Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Washington DC, 1984). 21. Mooz, W. E., Wolf, K. A. & Camm, F. Potential Constraints on Cumulative Global Production of Chlorojluorocarbons R-3400-EPA (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 1986). 22. Crawford, M. Science 237, 1557 (1987).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hammitt, J., Camm, F., Connell, P. et al. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone. Nature 330, 711–716 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1038/330711a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/330711a0
This article is cited by
-
A call for immediate climate action in anesthesiology: routine use of minimal or metabolic fresh gas flow reduces our ecological footprint
Canadian Journal of Anesthesia/Journal canadien d'anesthésie (2023)
-
Theoretical insight into OH- and Cl-initiated oxidation of CF3OCH(CF3)2 and CF3OCF2CF2H & fate of CF3OC(X•)(CF3)2 and CF3OCF2CF2X• radicals (X=O, O2)
Scientific Reports (2017)
-
Reactions of chlorine atoms and hydroxyl radicals with trichloroethanol: a mechanistic and kinetic study
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry (2010)
-
Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy
Climatic Change (1995)
-
The effectiveness of measures to reduce the man-made greenhouse effect. The application of a Climate-policy Model
Theoretical and Applied Climatology (1994)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.