Abstract
Recent measurements1 have shown that the total solar irradiance decreased at a rate of 0.019% per year between 1980 and 1985, and may still be decreasing. Presumably, this reflects a cyclical variation that may or may not be related to the well-known cycles of solar activity. Using data on globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 120 yr2, I show that the solar irradiance may have varied in phase with the 80–90 yr cycle represented by the envelope of the 11-yr solar-activity cycle. As the last peak of this cycle occurred in 1955–60, the next minimum should be reached about the end of the century, by which time the solar irradiance will be reduced from its peak value by ∼1% if the present decay rate of 0.019% per year is typical.
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Reid, G. Influence of solar variability on global sea surface temperatures. Nature 329, 142–143 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1038/329142a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/329142a0
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