Abstract
There has been considerable progress in understanding the possible impact of the continued release of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on the stratospheric ozone layer. Current estimates of the steady-state ozone depletion due to the release of CFCs 11 and 12 at the 1976 production rates are ∼10%; the recent decrease is due largely to revisions in some OH and HO2 reaction rate coefficients1. There have been changes in the calculated vertical profiles in the stratosphere of many of the trace species considered as essential components of the models associated with this downward revision in the predicted ozone depletion. Comparison of such vertical profiles calculated for the present, relatively unperturbed atmosphere with available observations is the only experimental means of verifying the models. We show here that the accuracy and coverage of the observations are insufficient to distinguish between models giving predicted steady-state ozone depletions differing by at least a factor of 2. The same calculations show that the largest differences in vertical profiles occur for the temporary reservoir species HOCl, HO2NO2, H2O2 and ClONO2 for which virtually no data are available. Measurements of these reservoir species would significantly improve our ability to validate current models.
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Derwent, R., Eggleton, A. On the validation of one-dimensional CFC–ozone depletion models. Nature 293, 387–389 (1981). https://doi.org/10.1038/293387a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/293387a0
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