Germany and France’s climate research rises as UK performance flags

Data from the Nature Index for Europe raise questions over potential Brexit impact.

2 February 2024

Mischa Keijser/Getty Images

After the United States and China, the next leading country in high-quality climate and conservation research output in the Nature Index is the United Kingdom. Delving into the analysis that accompanied last year’s Nature Index climate and conservation supplement reveals that the United Kingdom’s position may be under threat, however, and from other European nations.

From 2015 to 2022, the United Kingdom’s contribution, or Share, for Nature Index articles related to the United Nations’ four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on climate and conservation (SDGs 12 to 15) rose by just 1%, despite there being a 41% increase in such publications in the database over the period. Germany (30%) and France (44%) both saw much bigger increases in Share.

The table below shows this varying performance in more detail across the 10 leading European nations for contributions to Nature Index publications related to the SDGs on Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG 12), Climate Action (SDG 13), Life Below Water (SDG 14) and Life On Land (SDG15). In terms of percentage change, only Sweden (3% fall in Share) performed less well than the United Kingdom.

Brexit questions

Comparing two points in time (2015 and 2022) might not reflect variations in the intervening years. A number of countries in the table, including Sweden but also Germany, France and the Netherlands, actually saw their highest Share in 2021 before falling back in 2022.

The United Kingdom, however, seems to have been on more of an overall downward trend, climbing to a peak Share of 274 in 2020 before dropping back to a level that suggests Germany could overtake it in the near future.

So, what could be the cause? The most obvious political and research funding change that affected the United Kingdom over the period was Brexit. After the country’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, there were several years of wrangling about whether it would continue to access EU research programmes.

This was only resolved last year, when an agreement was finally reached for the United Kingdom to have ‘associate’ status in the European Commission’s €95 billion (US$103 billion) Horizon 2020 framework funding programme for research.

The disruption undoubtedly affected research partnerships involving the United Kingdom during the period, although it is hard to tell whether the trends in the climate and conservation data reflect this. Disruption from the pandemic, which impacted research collaboration, may also have had an effect on climate researchers starting new projects or completing those in progress.

What the Nature Index data do show is that there are no UK institutions involved in the leading 20 international research partnerships for climate and conservation research in the Nature Index from 2015 to 2022. At the same time, institutions from France, Germany, Switzerland, Finland and Spain all feature.

This might be related to some countries in Europe having large research institutions, such as the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France, whose output is in line with their size. It is also notable that UK organizations do feature when looking at the fastest-rising institutions for climate research in the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

The dip overall in high-quality climate research output seen by the United Kingdom, and improved performance by other European nations, should, however, be a pattern that policy-watchers and funders keep a close eye on in the years to come.