Abstract
PM2.5 exposure distributions of adult Helsinki citizens were simulated using a probabilistic simulation framework. Simulation results were compared to corresponding personal exposure distributions measured in the EXPOLIS study in Helsinki. The simpler models 1 and 2 (with two and three microenvironments, respectively) predict the general outline of the exposure distributions reasonably well. Compared to the observed exposure distribution, the mean is underestimated by less than 3 μg m−3 (20%) and the standard deviation by 23–35%. In the improved simulation models (3 and 4), the environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-exposed subjects are excluded, the time–activity models of working and nonworking subpopulations are modeled separately, and the correlations of input concentration and time fraction variables have been accounted for. The output of these models was very close to the observed distributions; the differences in the means were less than 0.1 μg m−3 and the differences in standard deviation less than 1%. We conclude that when the required input data are available or can be reliably estimated, the target population PM2.5 exposure distributions can be predicted accurately enough for most practical purposes using this kind of a microenvironment model.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 6 print issues and online access
$259.00 per year
only $43.17 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Behar J.V., Thomas J., and Pandian M.D. Development of the Benzene Exposure Assessment Model (BEAM). In: Total Exposure Assessment Methodology. Proceedings of the EPA/A&WMA Specialty Conference, Las Vegas, NV, November 1989. Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, USA, 1990, pp. 436–450.
Cullen A.C., and Frey H.C. Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment, Plenum, New York, 1999, 335 pp.
Duan N. Models for human exposure to air pollution. Environ Int 1982: 8: 305–309.
Firestone M., Fenner-Crisp P., Barry T., Bennet D., Chang S., Callahan M., Burke A.M., Michaud J., Olsen M., Cirone P., Barnes D., Wood W., and Knot S. Guiding Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis. EPA Technical Panel Report 1997; EPA/630/R-97/001; 35 pp.
Freijer J.I., Bloemen H.J.T.H., de Loos S., Marra M., Rombout P.J.A., Steentjes G.M., and van Veen M.P. Modelling exposure of the Dutch population to air pollution. J Hazard Mater 1998: 61: 107–114.
Fugas M. Assessment of total exposure to an air pollutant. Proceedings of the International Conference on Environmental Sensing and Assessment 1975: Vol. 2, Paper No. 38-5, IEEE #75-CH 1004-1, ICESA.
Hänninen O., Alm S., Kaarakainen E., and Jantunen M. The EXPOLIS Databases. Publications of the National Public Health Institute, BB/2002, KTL, Kuopio. ISBN: 951-740-321-6 (printed), ISBN: 951-740-322-4 (pdf), ISSN: 0359-3576; 408 pp.
Jantunen M.J., Hänninen O., Katsouyanni K., Knöppel H., Kuenzli N., Lebret E., Maroni M., Saarela K., Sram R., and Zmirou D. Air pollution exposure in European cities: the “Expolis” study. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol 1998: 8(4): 495–518.
Koistinen K.J., Kousa A., Tenhola V., Hänninen O., Jantunen M.J., Oglesby L., Kuenzli N., and Georgoulis L. Fine particle (PM2.5) measurement methodology, quality assurance procedures, and pilot results of the EXPOLIS study. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 1999: 49: 1212–1220.
Koistinen K.J., Hänninen O., Rotko T., Edwards R.D., Moschandreas D., and Jantunen M.J. Behavioral and environmental determinants of personal exposures to PM2.5 in EXPOLIS-Helsinki. Atmos Environ 2001: 35: 2473–2481.
Kruize H., Hänninen O., Breugelmans O., Lebret E., and Jantunen M. Description and demonstration of EXPOLIS simulation model: two examples of modeling population exposure to particulate matter. JEA 2002 (in print).
Law A.M., and Kelton W.D. Simulation modeling and analysis. McGraw-Hill international editions. In: Industrial Engineering Series 1991, McGraw-Hill, Singapore. ISBN 0-07-100803-9; 759 pp.
Law P.L., Lioy P.J., Zelenka M.P., Huber A.H., and McCurdy T.R. Evaluation of a probabilistic exposure model applied to carbon monoxide (pNEM/CO) using Denver personal exposure monitoring data. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 1997: 47: 491–500.
Letz R., Ryan B.P., and Spengler J.D. Estimated distributions of personal exposure to respirable particles. Environ Monit Assess 1984: 4: 351–359.
Morgan M.G., and Henrion M. Uncertainty. A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990, ISBN 0-521-42744-4; 332 pp.
Ott W.R. A physical explanation of the lognormality of pollutant concentrations. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 1990: 40: 1378–1383.
Ott W., Thomas J., Mage D., and Wallace L. Validation of the Simulation of Human Activity and Pollutant Exposure (SHAPE) model using paired days from the Denver, CO, carbon monoxide field study. Atmos Environ 1988: 22: 2101–2113.
Parrish R.S., Smith C.N., and Fong F.K. Tests of the pesticide root zone model and the aggregate model for transport and transformation of aldicarb, metolachlor and bromide. J Environ Qual 1992: 21: 685–697.
Rotko T., Koistinen K., Hänninen O., and Jantunen M. Sociodemographic descriptors of personal exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) in EXPOLIS-Helsinki. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol 2000a: 10(4): 385–393.
Rotko T., Oglesby L., Künzli N., and Jantunen M. Population sampling in European air pollution exposure study, EXPOLIS: comparisons between the cities and representativity of the samples. J Expos Anal Environ Epidemiol 2000b: 10(4): 355–364.
Ryan P.B., Spengler J.D., and Letz R. Estimating personal exposures to NO2 . Environ Int 1986: 12: 395–400.
Acknowledgements
This work has been supported by EU Contract N ENV4-CT96-0202 (DG12-DTEE); Academy of Finland Contracts 36586, 40835, and 42610; and intramural funding by KTL, the National Public Health Institute of Finland, and other institutions in other centers.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hänninen, O., Kruize, H., Lebret, E. et al. EXPOLIS simulation model: PM2.5 application and comparison with measurements in Helsinki. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 13, 74–85 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500260
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jea.7500260
Keywords
This article is cited by
-
Integrated model for the estimation of annual, seasonal, and episode PM10 exposures of children in Rome, Italy
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2011)
-
Contribution to volatile organic compound exposures from time spent in stores and restaurants and bars
Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology (2009)
-
Integrated Ambient and Microenvironment Model for Estimation of PM10 Exposures of Children in Annual and Episode Settings
Environmental Modeling & Assessment (2009)
-
Characterisation of urban inhalation exposures to benzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde in the European Union
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2008)
-
Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study
Environmental Health (2007)