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Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry

Nature Geoscience volume 2, pages 145–150 (2009)Cite this article

Abstract

The carbon cycle has a central role in climate change. For example, during glacial–interglacial cycles, atmospheric carbon dioxide has altered radiative forcing and amplified temperature changes. However, it is unclear how sensitive the climate system has been to changes in carbon cycling in previous geological periods, or how this sensitivity may evolve in the future, following massive anthropogenic emissions. Here we develop an analytical relationship that links the variation of radiative forcing from changes in carbon dioxide concentrations with changes in air–sea carbon cycling on a millennial timescale. We find that this relationship is affected by the ocean storage of carbon and its chemical partitioning in sea water. Our analysis reveals that the radiative forcing of climate is more sensitive to carbon perturbations now than it has been over much of the preceding 400 million years. This high sensitivity is likely to persist into the future as the oceans become more acidic and the bulk of the fossil-fuels inventory is transferred to the ocean and atmosphere.

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Figure 1: Inferred changes in atmospheric CO2, radiative forcing and temperature from ice-core records.
Figure 2: Transient response of atmospheric CO2 to idealized perturbations.
Figure 3: Sensitivity of radiative forcing to the buffered carbon inventory following idealized perturbations.
Figure 4: Future possible changes in atmospheric CO2, carbon inventory and sensitivity of radiative forcing.
Figure 5: Past inferred changes in atmospheric CO2, carbon inventory and sensitivity of radiative forcing.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by NERC grants NE/F002408/1 and NE/F001657/1.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, UK

    Philip Goodwin & Richard G. Williams

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Philip Goodwin

  3. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK

    Andy Ridgwell

  4. Department of Earth, Atmosphere and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA

    Michael J. Follows

Authors
  1. Philip Goodwin
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  2. Richard G. Williams
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  3. Andy Ridgwell
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  4. Michael J. Follows
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Contributions

P.G., R.G.W. and M.J.F. contributed theory to the study and A.R. conducted the supporting numerical modelling with GENIE-1. P.G. and R.G.W. led the writing of this study, and contributed equally, together with inputs from A.R. and M.J.F.

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Correspondence to Philip Goodwin or Richard G. Williams.

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Goodwin, P., Williams, R., Ridgwell, A. et al. Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry. Nature Geosci 2, 145–150 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo416

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