Washington

A projected shortage of science and technology workers could have a “devastating” effect on the US economy by 2050 unless it is addressed now, a report from the White House warned last week.

The report, published by President Bill Clinton's National Science and Technology Council, warns that two problems are on the horizon. First, the number of science and technology workers threatens to fall below that needed to keep the United States competitive — the demand for staff in some science sectors has already outstripped supply.

Second, demographic trends mean that the problem will be exacerbated if the underrepresentation of minorities and women in the science, technology and engineering (ST&E) sector is not addressed. The Census Bureau projects that, between 1995 and 2050, non-whites will grow from 26 per cent of the US workforce to 48 per cent.

The implication is that the ST&E workforce will shrink unless more women and minorities enter it. In 1997, for example, white men made up 36 per cent of the population, but 65 per cent of the ST&E workforce.

“If current trends persist, our nation may begin to fall far short of the talent needed to spur the innovation process that has given America such a strong economy,” said Neal Lane, President Clinton's science adviser, in a statement accompanying the report.

Lane also warned against the country's reliance on foreign workers to meet needs in academia and high-technology (see left). “Our leadership in science and technology is largely due to this situation. But we cannot expect it to continue. We will have to do a much better job of growing our own talent.”

The report calls for more research on the barriers that exclude women and minorities from science, and tells federal agencies to address these, for example through financial help for students.

The report, which was compiled by an inter-agency working group, is widely endorsed in Washington. But some point to a lack of clear recommendations. “It's not clear to me what they're asking agencies to do that they're not doing already,” said one Capitol Hill aide who follows the issue.