Abstract
Earthquakes that are followed within a short time by abnormally large numbers of aftershocks are hypothesised to be long-term precursors of stronger earthquakes. In a test of the hypothesis, 18 out of 23 strong earthquakes, in five regions worldwide, were predicted retrospectively. In comparison with a random model the precursory pattern occurs at a satisfactorily high confidence level.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Keilis-Borok, V.L. Podgayetskaya, V. M. & Prozorov, A. G. Comput. Seis. 5, 55–79 (1971).
Knopoff, L. & Gardner, J. K. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 28, 311–313 (1972).
Gardner, J. K. & Knopoff, L. Bull. seis. Soc. Am. 64, 1363–1367 (1974).
Hileman, J. A., Allen, C. R. & Nordquist, J. M. Seismicity of the Southern California Region, 1 January 1932 to 31 December 1972 (Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 1973).
Keilis-Borok, V. I., Knopoff, L., Rotvain, I. M. & Sidorenko, T. M. J. geophys. Res. (in the press).
Caputo, M. et al. Annali Geofis. (in the press).
Keilis-Borok, V. & Malinovskaya, L. N. J. geophys. Res. 69, 3019–3024 (1964).
Keilis-Borok, V., Knopoff, L. & Allen, C. R. J. geophys. Res. (in the press).
Bolt, B. & Miller, R. D. Catalog of Earthquakes in Northern California and Adjoining Areas 1 January 1910-31 December 1972 (Seismological Stations of the University of California at Berkeley, 1975).
Catalog of Major Earthquakes which occurred in and near Japan, 1926-52 (Japan Meteorological Agency).
Friedman, M. E., Whitcomb, J. H., Allen, C. R. & Hileman, J. A. Seismicity of the Southern California Region, 1 January 1972 to 31 December 1974 (Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 1976).
Catalog of the Earthquakes of Southern California, 1974-77 (Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology).
Smith, W. N.Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 19, 393–4 (1976).
U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hypocenter Data File (NOAA, 1977).
Bolt, B. A. Bull. seis. Soc. Am. 68, 513–515 (1978).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Keilis-Borok, V., Knopoff, L. & Rotvain, I. Bursts of aftershocks, long-term precursors of strong earthquakes. Nature 283, 259–263 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1038/283259a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/283259a0
This article is cited by
-
Guest Editorial: Special Issue on “Lithosphere Dynamics and Earthquake Hazard Forecasting”
Surveys in Geophysics (2022)
-
Quantitatively Analyzing the Impacts of Seasonal Water Storage Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir on Nearby Crust
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2022)
-
Turkey and adjacent area seismicity forecasts from earthquake inter-event time mean ratio statistics
Journal of Seismology (2019)
-
Statistical Features of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane, Algeria, Aftershock Sequence
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2018)
-
Spatial variations of b-values in the coastal area of Guangdong
Journal of Ocean University of China (2018)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
