For the first time in human history, more than one-half of the world's population is living in cities.

Credit: MARK ADLER/PANOS

This trend is global. Yet it is most prevalent in the developing world. The United Nations estimates that by 2030, the world's population will reach 8 billion. That will be 2.3 billion more than 30 years earlier. The urban population in developing countries is set to rise from 2 to 4 billion over the same period. That means virtually all of the growth in global population in the decades ahead will take place in cities in the developing world.

The dash towards urbanization is inevitable. Countries with emerging economies have shown that, while successful development generally begins with agriculture, development cannot be based on agriculture alone. Industry, trade, transport and education are essential, and all of these activities are centred in urban areas.

Some developing countries have already undergone the process of urbanization. Most others are on a path towards rapid urban growth. In Latin America, for example, 80% of the population lives in cities. A majority of the population in Africa is expected to become urban within the next three decades.

Thanks to the experience of developed countries, urbanization is a well-mapped terrain. This experience will undoubtedly prove helpful. Yet we can never expect the developing countries to replicate simply what has happened in developed countries.

Indeed the growth of cities in the developing world presents two additional challenges. The first is that the pace and extent of change is unprecedented. The second is that those who live in and those who manage cities in the developing world are unprepared for what is to come. Given the rate of population growth in cities, they will not have the luxury to learn by experience.

The infrastructure in developing world cities — water, sanitation, energy and transportation systems, health-care facilities, housing and education — is inadequate even for the existing population. Therefore, why should we have any confidence that these cities will be able to manage the change that lies ahead? Meanwhile, central governments in the developing world, which have historically associated poverty with rural areas, have rarely enacted programmes to help cities.

NO RESPECT

Public officials and researchers have often underestimated, or even denied, the importance of cities.

Public officials and researchers have often underestimated, or even denied, the importance of cities. The prevailing attitude has been that urbanization is a second-tier problem that can await their attention until more pressing problems are addressed — reductions in poverty, access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation, and improved public health. Many public officials have held onto the false hope that the problems of urbanization will dissipate as developing countries gain greater prosperity.

This partly explains why policy interventions rarely address the root causes of urban problems, and why, in some cases, the policies are misguided. Even the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have displayed these weaknesses. For instance, the MDG target for reducing the number of slum dwellers in the developing world is completely inadequate when considering population growth forecasts.

The MDGs call for 100 million fewer slum dwellers in cities by 2015. During the same period, the number of slum dwellers is expected to increase by 1 billion. Clearly this is a reform measure largely divorced from reality. Even by its own definition of success, it is doomed to fail. Unless we carefully guide urbanization, sustainable development and human security will remain elusive.

Contrary to prevailing perceptions about cities, most urban growth will not take place in megacities with more than 10 million people. Instead, it will take place in smaller cities with populations of 500,000 to 1 million. Areas of growth are likely to be at the edge of existing cities.

ENDLESS WEBS

The urban landscape of the future will appear as follows. People will live in a continuum of urban spaces with varying densities. Cities will no longer be sharply defined as autonomous entities comprised of millions of people. Instead, cities will consist of endless webs of interconnected functions and activities. We should, in fact, be thinking in terms of urban and rural, not urban or rural.

This new 'melded' landscape, characterized by the emergence of large populated regions interacting with their hinterlands and beyond, in ever-more complex and kaleidoscopic patterns, represents our urban future. There is no escape from it.

The compelling issue is not how to reverse this trend but how to adapt to this inevitability in ways that will lead to healthy, productive and rewarding lives for the largest number of people.

There are many difficult issues to consider. What impact will this urban growth have on the environment? How can we mitigate this impact and make urban spaces more sustainable? What are the forces driving urban growth and change? How can these forces be controlled or directed? What can we do to curb the risks and vulnerabilities that societies, particularly poor societies, face in the push to urbanize?

MANAGING GROWTH

The world's cities — and especially cities in the developing world — face not only critical economic, social and environmental challenges that need immediate attention, but also long-term problems of how to manage urban growth in responsible and effective ways.

In both the short and the long term, science, technology and innovation will be critical for ensuring access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation, for improving air quality and developing efficient transportation systems, for redirecting development away from disaster-prone areas and for devising effective management strategies to meet a number of potential risks. Indeed, successful cities are poised to serve as laboratories for science-based development.

Finding sustainable ways of living in the urban landscape of the future is a critical task for institutions such as the United Nations University (UNU), which has a tradition of studying megacities, and TWAS, the academy of sciences for the developing world, with its network of scientific experts across the world. Given the number of people affected, there might be no more important agenda to pursue in the years ahead.