There has been intense media interest in the AIDS epidemic recently, in light of the XIV International AIDS Conference in Barcelona (7–12 July). However, it is not clear whether the news is good or bad.

The authors of a United Nations report (3 July) and a study published in the Lancet (4 July) suggest that 40 million people are infected with HIV and that 70 million will die from AIDS over the next 20 years. Peter Piot, Executive Director of UNAIDS warns that, “we're only at the beginning of this epidemic” (UN News Service), and Stephen Lewis, special envoy of the Secretary General for HIV/AIDS in Africa, presented the worrying statistic that in sub-Saharan Africa, 67% of HIV+ 15–24-year olds are female (UN Press Briefing).

On a more optimistic note, the Lancet report proposes that 28 million new infections could be avoided by education programmes. The proposed introduction of an HIV+ character to the South-African version of Sesame Street is one such initiative (MediaGuardian). The prevention of AIDS-related deaths will also require that anti-HIV drugs are more widely available. To this end, a court ruling in South Africa has ordered the government to stop denying nevirapine — which blocks mother-to-child transmission of HIV — to pregnant women (Reuters). Similarly, the world's largest HIV vaccine trial is awaiting final approval in Thailand. It is hoped that any success of the vaccine will not be confused with the recent controversy over V-1 Immunitor, a Thai food supplement made from the blood of HIV-infected individuals (New Scientist).

So, it seems that although the statistics are alarming and there is no room for complacency, preventive measures are having some impact and new developments look promising.