Hassan C et al. (2008) Projected impact of colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity in Europe. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 27: 366–374
The feasibility of population-wide screening for colorectal cancer with CT colonography (CTC) in Europe is unknown; however, widespread medical demand for CT has raised concern that its availability would be insufficient. In a simulation study, Hassan and colleagues assessed whether the number of CT machines available in Europe would be adequate for start-up and steady-state phases of such a mass screening program.
The analysis used data on the number of hospital-based CT machines <10 years old in nine main European countries and the demographics of these countries. The compliance rate was assumed to be 30%. A mathematical model was used to predict CTC demand during the 5-year start-up period when individuals aged 50–80 years would require their first screen. A Markov model was used to estimate demand for CTC during the steady-state phase when both 10-year follow-up screening and first-time screening would occur.
The simulation estimated that demand for CTC in the start-up and steady-state phases would be 6.6 and 4.3 procedures daily per machine, respectively. The researchers suggest that a steady-state demand for four procedures daily would probably be feasible; however, they concede that, when other demands on CT machines are considered, the start-up demand would be excessive.
The authors conclude that high start-up demand and future increased demand for CTC screening (e.g. with compliance rates >30%) could be met by increased CT capacity and/or combining CTC with colonoscopy—CTC might be reserved for initial screening.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mass CT colonography screening for colorectal cancer might be feasible in Europe. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 5, 235 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncpgasthep1107
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncpgasthep1107