Assessing the impact of adjuvant therapy on cure rate for stage 2 breast carcinoma

Abstract

The log-rank test is commonly used to assess therapeutic effect in prospective, randomised clinical trials. This test is sensitive to differences in survival between treatment groups at a specific endpoint, but cannot determine whether such a difference is due to an enhanced cure rate or an enhanced survival time among uncured patients. To investigate the clinical impact of such limitations, an algorithm was constructed to simulate clinical, randomised, adjuvant therapy trials in patients with a cured fraction of 0.27 and a median survival time for uncured patients of 3.4 years. Hypothetical therapies were introduced to increase rate of cure, increase median survival time, or achieve a combination of these effects. For 500 simulated patients recruited over a 5 year period and then followed for three additional years, a 50% enhancement of median survival time (to 5.1 years) led to a survival increase detectable at the P = 0.05 level in 780 of 1000 trials, whereas a 50% enhancement of cured fraction (to 40.5%) led to a detectable increase at the same level in only 449 of 1000 trials. These findings suggest that, in clinical trials of adjuvant therapy for stage 2 breast cancer, the log rank test may be more sensitive to increases in tumour-related survival time than to increases in cured fraction.