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A decay model for assessing polybrominated biphenyl exposure among women in the Michigan Long-Term PBB Study

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology volume 18, pages 410–420 (2008)Cite this article

Abstract

The Michigan Long-Term PBB Study was established following exposure to polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) in the early 1970s. Serum samples from cohort members were analyzed for PBB during 1976–1993. More than 20 years following this industrial incident, some participants still had measurable serum PBB concentration levels. Thus, there is continuing interest in understanding the elimination of PBB from the body. In the present study, we estimated serum PBB decay and investigated the effects of covariates on serum PBB decay rates among 406 female cohort members. We developed a decay model using a general linear mixed model, which attributes unique intercept and slope estimates for each individual while borrowing information across individuals for predicting these quantities. Age at exposure and body mass index (BMI) at the initial measurement were time-independent covariates. Time since exposure, smoking history, pregnancy status, and breast-feeding status were time-dependent covariates. Higher BMI was associated with a slower decay rate; smokers had a faster decay rate than nonsmokers; and increasing age at exposure was marginally associated with a slower decay rate. Our results suggest a faster serum PBB decay rate for women who breast-fed during the interval between serum PBB measurements. To evaluate the predictive performance of our modeling approach, we compared the results from this model with those from a previously developed ordinary least squares (OLS) two-stage decay model. The mixed-effects decay model predicted the observed serum PBB concentration levels significantly better than the OLS two-stage decay model (mixed-effects model, r=0.93; OLS two-stage model, r=0.86; P<0.0001).

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Abbreviations

BMI:

body mass index

MDCH:

Michigan Department of Community Health

MFHS:

Michigan Female Health Study

MSE:

mean squared error

OLS:

ordinary least squares

PBB:

polybrominated biphenyl

PCB:

polychlorinated biphenyl

ppb:

parts per billion

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health (Grants R01-ES08341, R01-ES012014, and R01-ES012458-01) and was supported by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention cooperative agreement U39/CCU500392. We thank the staff and participants of the Michigan Long-Term PBB Study; Dr. Kevin Cavanagh and Michael O'Keefe of the Division of Chemistry and Toxicology, Bureau of Laboratories, Michigan Department of Community Health; the Michigan Department of Community Health for assistance in interpretation of PBB analytic methods and results; and Paige Tolbert, Carol Rubin and Alden Henderson for collaboration on the Michigan Female Health Study. The findings/conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the CDC.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Metrecia L Terrell, Chanley M Small & Michele Marcus

  2. Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Amita K Manatunga & Robert H Lyles

  3. Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology Division, Michigan Department of Community Health, Lansing, Michigan, USA

    Lorraine L Cameron & Julie Wirth

  4. Department of Epidemiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

    Julie Wirth

  5. Division of Nutrition and Physical Activity, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Heidi Michels Blanck

  6. Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Michele Marcus

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  1. Metrecia L Terrell
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Correspondence to Metrecia L Terrell.

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This work was carried out in the Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Emory University, Atlanta Georgia 30322, USA.

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Terrell, M., Manatunga, A., Small, C. et al. A decay model for assessing polybrominated biphenyl exposure among women in the Michigan Long-Term PBB Study. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 18, 410–420 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.jes.7500633

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