Cited research: Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles doi:10.1029/2009GB003587 (2010)

Worldwide, the coming decades are likely to see a continued increase in the threat of coastal 'dead zones' resulting from nutrient pollution in rivers, researchers say.

Sybil Seitzinger of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Stockholm and her colleagues used a global nutrient-export model to examine the effect of human activities on the export of four nutrients, including nitrogen and phosphorus, in watersheds from 1970–2000. They also make predictions into 2030 and beyond.

Their analysis predicts that agriculture will be the primary factor driving changes in nitrogen export, whereas sewage treatment and detergent use will have a major effect on phosphorus levels. South Asia dominated global trends in both past and future scenarios, thanks to booming populations and economies. J.T.