Munich

Natural disasters caused record economic damage worldwide of US$55 billion last year — $20 billion more than in 2001 — according to an analysis by reinsurance company Munich Re.

The annual survey by Munich Re, which provides policies to back insurance companies, helps climate researchers to match their own predictions against what is actually going on. No one has conclusively tied any increase in the rate of extreme weather events to global warming — but Munich Re analysts predict that global warming will increasingly cause such events.

August's floods in central Europe were the most expensive disaster of the year (see Nature 418, 905; 200210.1038/418905a), with damage costing some $18.5 billion, says the company.

But in terms of deaths and injuries, 2002 wasn't such a bad year. About 11,000 people were killed in natural disasters, compared with 25,000 in 2001, when earthquakes hit El Salvador and India.

The company's geoscience research group has been monitoring natural disasters for 30 years, using information from news agencies, the Red Cross and its own branches and clients in 150 countries.

The most notable trend during 2002 was the increase in extreme weather incidents, says Thomas Loster, head of climate risk research at Munich Re. “These observations are consistent with predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about more frequent weather extremes,” says Loster. “Although single observations are not statistically significant, each is an important element of the climate mosaic.”

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