Just eight years ago, reports were bemoaning the plight of the young physicist. There were no jobs in academia, industry or government. These reports seemed to discourage students from pursuing a PhD in physics. Students who started a PhD anyway — despite the best available advice — are now emerging to a markedly changed job market in which all sectors are seeking physicists.

In this month's Physics Today, authors of a 1993 American Institutes of Physics article reflect on their earlier predictions, and draw some new conclusions from the present data (http://physicstoday.org/pt/vol-54/iss-4/p36.html#bio). US and European laboratories are now having a difficult time getting nationals to take up physics. It is also increasingly difficult to recruit physicists from Russia and China — traditionally good sources of talent.

The change in fortune serves as a cautionary tale about making long-range predictions of employment in any field, no matter how good the available data. The latest report could be in as much danger of being out of date as the one it replaces. After the report was published, the latest US budget proposal by President George W. Bush proved to be less than physics-friendly. And many of the technology companies that grabbed physicists when academic and government opportunities were scarce seem to be faltering in the stock market.

Of course, even if the stock market crashes and Bush gets his way with the budget, there will still be jobs for physicists. Many academic physicists are approaching retirement, and other disciplines, such as structural biology, are increasingly dependent on physics. So, even considering the worst-case scenarios, it may be prudent to find creative ways to attract the best talent into physics programmes, rather than scare them away.