Munich

Greenhouse-gas emissions could be stabilized cheaply, but inertia is impeding a change to energy-saving policies and technologies. This is the main conclusion of a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC cost-analysis of climate protection — or mitigation — policies estimates that industrialized countries could achieve the Kyoto Protocol's emission targets at a cost of no more than 2% of gross domestic product; perhaps much less.

“It will now be essential to convince governments that the costs of climate protection are significantly lower than some analysts argue,” says Ogunlade Davidson, co-chair of the mitigation working group.

Some 200 lead authors from 120 countries contributed to the mitigation analysis. They conclude that the long-term economic benefits of climate protection will exceed the costs of using climate-friendly technologies, such as solar and wind power.

In two previous reports, the IPCC had provided strong scientific evidence for a rapid increase in mean global temperatures, and warned that global warming could have devastating consequences (see Nature 409, 445; 2001 and Nature 409, 971; 2001).

The new report makes few specific recommendations other than “careful consideration of the [environmental and economic] consequences”.

Some environmental groups, such as the UK-based Global Commons Institute and the Worldwatch Institute, criticize what they call the vagueness of the analysis, its emphasis on economic factors, and its lack of concrete recommendations.