Abstract
The droughts of north-east Brazil are unusually well defined in the departures of the quasi-permanent circulation systems in the tropical Atlantic sector. Anomaly patterns in the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic fields evolve in the course of the half-year preceding the March/April rainy season. Based on these diagnostic results, dynamically plausible predictor candidates are selected and entered into a stepwise multiple regression scheme. The circulation in the Atlantic sector proves to be essential for the prediction of rainfall anomalies, while predictor candidates from other parts of the globe are of subordinate importance. The regression equations derived from the 1921–56 record are used to produce rainfall forecasts for the years 1958–72. Forecast and observed values are strongly correlated. In particular, the severe 1958 drought was eminently predictable from this method.
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Hastenrath, S. Predictability of north-east Brazil droughts. Nature 307, 531–533 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1038/307531a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/307531a0
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