Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Original Manuscript
  • Published:

Examination of temporal trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemias and lymphomas provides aetiological clues

Leukemia volume 15, pages 1612–1618 (2001)Cite this article

Abstract

The age-sex distributions and temporal trends in incidence of leukaemia and lymphoma from the Manchester Children's Tumour Registry (MCTR), 1954–1998, are reported. This 45-year study includes 1795 children, all of whom had a histologically and/or cytologically verified leukaemia or lymphoma. At the time of their diagnoses all the children were under 15 years of age and were resident in a geographically defined area of north-west England covered by the MCTR. Log-linear modelling identified significant linear increases in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (average annual increase 0.7%; P = 0.005) and in Hodgkin's disease (HD) (1.2%, P = 0.04), but not in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), nor in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The increase in ALL was most pronounced amongst males, aged 1–4 years, and is likely to be due to precursor B-cell leukaemias. The increases in ALL and HD are discussed in relation to current hypotheses suggesting a role for infection. Additionally, a non-linear cohort effect was identified for NHL (P = 0.008), which may indicate the involvement of environmental factors other than infection.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Leck I, Birch JM, Marsden HB, Steward JK . Methods of classifying and ascertaining children's tumours Br J Cancer 1976 34: 69–82

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Birch JM . Manchester Children's Tumour Registry 1954–1970 and 1971–1983 In: Parkin DM, Stiller CA, Draper GJ, Bieber CA, Terracini B, Young JL (eds) International Incidence of Childhood Cancer IARC Scientific Publications: Lyon 1988 pp 299–304

    Google Scholar 

  3. Blair V, Birch JM . Patterns and temporal trends in the incidence of malignant disease in children: I. Leukaemia and lymphoma Eur J Cancer 1994 30: 1490–1498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Clayton D, Schifflers E . Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age-period and age-cohort models Stat Med 1987 6: 449–467

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Clayton D, Schifflers E . Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models Stat Med 1987 6: 469–481

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Parkin DM . Materials and methods of the study In: Parkin DM, Stiller CA, Draper GJ, Bieber CA, Terracini B, Young JL (eds) International Incidence of Childhood Cancer IARC Scientific Publications: Lyon 1988 pp 17–22

    Google Scholar 

  7. Breslow NE, Day NE . Statistical Methods in Cancer Research. Volume II: The Design and Analysis of Cohort Studies IARC Scientific Publications: Lyon 1987

    Google Scholar 

  8. Microsoft EXCEL Version 5.0: User's Guide Microsoft Corporation: Cambridge MA 1993

  9. Baker RJ, Nelder JA . The GLIM System Numerical Algorithms Group: Oxford 1978

    Google Scholar 

  10. McNally RJQ, Alexander FE, Staines A, Cartwright RA . A comparison of three methods of analysis for age-period-cohort models with application to incidence data on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma Int J Epidemiol 1997 26: 32–46

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Gurney JG, Davis S, Severson RK, Fang J-Y, Ross JA, Robison LL . Trends in cancer incidence among children in the US Cancer 1996 78: 532–541

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Weidmann C, Black RJ, Masuyer E, Parkin DM . Incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children between 1970 and 1990 in nine European countries Eur J Cancer 1999 35: 1235–1237

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. McNally RJQ, Birch JM, Taylor GM, Eden OB . Temporal increase in the incidence of childhood peak precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia seen in North West England Lancet 2000 356: 485–486

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Birch JM, Alexander FE, Blair V, Eden OB, Taylor GM, McNally RJQ . Space-time clustering patterns in childhood leukaemia support a role for infection Br J Cancer 2000 82: 1571–1576

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Westerbeek RMC, Blair V, Eden OB, Kelsey AM, Stevens RF, Will AM, Taylor GM, Birch JM . Seasonal variations in the onset of childhood leukaemia and lymphoma Br J Cancer 1998 78: 119–124

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Taylor GM, Dearden S, Payne N, Ayres M, Gokhale DA, Birch JM, Blair V, Stevens RF, Will AM, Eden OB . Evidence that an HLA-DQA1-DQB1 haplotype influences susceptibility to childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in boys provides further support for an infection-related aetiology Br J Cancer 1998 78: 561–565

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Greaves MF . Aetiology of acute leukaemia Lancet 1997 349: 344–349

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Armstrong AA, Alexander FE, Pinto Paes R, Morad NA, Gallagher A, Krajewski AS, Jones DB, Angus B, Adams J, Cartwright RA, Onions DE, Jarrett RF . Association of Epstein–Barr virus with pediatric Hodgkin's disease Am J Pathol 1993 142: 1683–1688

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  19. Ambinder RF, Browning PJ, Lorenzana I, Leventhal BG, Cosenza H, Mann RB, MacMahon EME, Medina R, Cardona V, Grufferman S, Olshan A, Levin A, Petersen EA, Blattner W, Levine PH . Epstein–Barr virus and childhood Hodgkin's disease in Honduras and the United States Blood 1993 81: 462–467

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Birch JM, Marsden HB, Swindell R . Incidence of malignant disease in childhood: a 24-year review of the Manchester Children's Tumour Registry data Br J Cancer 1980 42: 215–223

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The Manchester Children's Tumour Registry (MCTR) is supported by the Cancer Research Campaign. Jillian M Birch is Cancer Research Campaign Professorial Research Fellow in Paediatric Oncology and Osborn B Eden is Cancer Research Campaign Professor of Paediatric Oncology at the University of Manchester.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cancer Research Campaign Paediatric and Familial Cancer Research Group, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK

    RJQ McNally, DP Cairns & JM Birch

  2. Young Oncology Unit, Royal Manchester Children's Hospital and Christie Hospital Trusts, Manchester, UK

    OB Eden

  3. Dept of Diagnostic and Paediatric Pathology, Royal Manchester Children's Hospital and Christie Hospital Trusts, Manchester, UK

    AM Kelsey

  4. Immunogenetics Laboratory, Dept of Medical Genetics, St Mary's Hospital, Manchester, UK

    GM Taylor

Authors
  1. RJQ McNally
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. DP Cairns
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. OB Eden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. AM Kelsey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. GM Taylor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. JM Birch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

McNally, R., Cairns, D., Eden, O. et al. Examination of temporal trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemias and lymphomas provides aetiological clues. Leukemia 15, 1612–1618 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.leu.2402252

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.leu.2402252

Keywords

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links