Analysis of Running and the Prediction of Ultimate Performance

Abstract

SEVERAL people have attempted to analyse world running records in the hope of explaining why man runs slower as the distance run increases. Meade^1,2 and Lietzke^3–5 have pointed out that the ratio of records for two distances has remained more or less constant since reliable athletic data have been kept. By showing that the rate of running during world record performances varies smoothly with distance (when plotted in logarithmic form), Francis⁶ pointed out inconsistencies in the records and predicted which records should be broken and by how much. A physiological approach by Henry⁷ yielded a polynomial expression relating mean running speed and total running time. The coefficients of the polynomial were related to the consumption and production of chemicals involved in muscle contraction, for example, glycogen and lactic acid.