Abstract
THIS communication outlines a probability model which seems to provide an adequate basis for making predictions concerning the occurrence of largest earthquake magnitudes over time: (a) The number of earthquakes in a year is a Poisson random variable with mean α; (b) X, the earthquake magnitude, is a random variable distributed with cumulative distribution function: 
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References
Gumbel, E. J., Statistics of Extremes (Columbia University Press, New York, 1958).
Richter, C. F., Elementary Seismology, 359 (W. H. Freeman, San Francisco, 1958).
Lomnitz, C., Bull. Seis. Soc. Amer., 54, 1271 (1964).
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Gutenberg, B., and Richter, C. F., Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 18 (Princeton Univ. Press, 1949).
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EPSTEIN, B., LOMNITZ, C. A Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes. Nature 211, 954–956 (1966). https://doi.org/10.1038/211954b0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/211954b0
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