Abstract
I SUGGEST that Dr. Dingle's problem in his article in NATURE of September 14, p. 423, is not quite fairly stated. If Ohm's law has been found true in 9,999 cases and found false in one case, and if P who speaks truth once in 10,000 times says he has found it true, it is equally probable that he has struck the exceptional case and told the normal lie, or struck the normal case and told the exceptional truth. If this is not immediately clear, it becomes so on considering 108 experiments by P, assuming, as is proper, that the exceptional case occurs once in 10,000 times throughout. In this sense, the probability that P has found the law false is one half.
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BARRETT, W. The Meaning of Probability. Nature 136, 604 (1935). https://doi.org/10.1038/136604b0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/136604b0
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