Research articles

Designing interventions to address water scarcity under climate change is challenging given the large uncertainties in projected water availability. In this study, changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions are identified, and a general decision-making framework to support policy decisions is developed.

Footprint analysis of how much water is embedded in food consumption in France, Germany and the United Kingdom finds geographical differences in water footprints and projects how different diets could affect water conservation.

An econometric modelling analysis shows that eliminating tariffs in key inputs for renewable energy production can have a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions in Europe.

In response to continuing habitat and biodiversity loss, leading conservationists have proposed setting aside half the earth for nature. This study evaluates the trade-offs with food production and finds losses in croplands, pasture and calories that vary with the conservation strategy.

Poaching undermines the effectiveness of marine protected areas, where enforcement capacity is limited. In this study, fishers adjacent to MPAs were surveyed, and it was found that about half had observed poaching, but that most do not react so as to avoid conflict, or because they feel that this is either not their responsibility or that poaching is a survival strategy.

Cognitive mapping reveals how people think about complex systems and enables hypothesis tests on understanding interdependency. This study finds that education and experience are associated with more nuanced form of complex-systems thinking in sustainable agriculture, such as feedback loops and indirect effects.

Intensifying agricultural production often imposes environmental costs. This study assesses progress towards the redesign of agricultural systems, finding that seven types of sustainable intensification now characterize an estimated 29% of farms on 9% of agricultural land worldwide.

Most nutrients in human excreta, if recovered, could offset substantial quantities of synthetic fertilizer use globally and advance food security goals by enhancing circular economies. This study analyses co-location of urban nutrients with nearby agricultural needs in 56 of the world’s largest cities and finds that in locations with high cropland density, nutrient-intensive crops and compact urban area, it would be possible and convenient to reuse human-derived nutrients in agriculture.

The implementation of technologic solutions to complex problems can have unintended effects. This study questions the water sustainability of using shade balls in the Los Angeles reservoir to reduce evaporation during the recent drought in California, by assessing the shade balls’ water footprint.

Land management and ownership by Indigenous Peoples are critical components of conservation strategies, but information on these has previously never been aggregated. Here, global data is compiled to show that Indigenous Peoples have tenure rights or manage a quarter of the world’s land area and 40% of all protected areas and intact ecosystems.

Organic farming produces crops without using synthetic agrochemicals, but its success with pests is unclear. This study finds that organic farming promotes overall pest control but that varies by pest type, with lower pathogen pests, similar animal pests and higher weed pests than conventional agriculture.

As agriculture is the primary driver of eutrophication resulting from the oversupply of nitrogen and phosphorus to water bodies, much attention has been paid to the environmental impacts of food consumption. Little is known about the impacts of consuming other goods. This study shows that in 2011 the final demand for non-food products accounted for over one-third of the global marine and freshwater eutrophication impacts—a 28% increase since 2000.

Aquaculture is surpassing wild-caught seafood, but we feed aquaculture with wild forage fish for key nutrients. This study finds removing such forage fish from diets of livestock and non-carnivorous aquaculture species and moderating its use in China will help sustain forage fish populations in the future.

An analysis of famines in England, France and Italy from 1300 to 1850 to determine the ecological and social determinants that cause famines, and their severity and timing. The authors find that Malthusian arguments regarding population density and food production were correct before the Industrial Revolution, with famines being caused by meteorological events; famines did not become ‘man-made’ events until after 1710.

China’s agricultural output is growing rapidly, but the environmental impacts are unclear. This study finds this impact has risen, but much more slowly than output due to improved farm management, though ongoing shifts in cropland location may challenge this development.

A large-scale economic analysis of the economics of water supplies in the greater Los Angeles area, based on the ‘full-cycle’ costs of water sources such as imported water, groundwater, and reused and storm-water capture. The study showcases an updated model and framework for urban water studies that can be applied to other cities.

Agroforests can combine crop production with ecosystem service provisioning, but how they should be implemented to balance their costs and benefits remains unknown. This study finds that low-to-intermediate shade cocoa agroforests in West Africa benefit biodiversity and climate without compromising production.

A social network analysis of over 20,000 reports of illegal child adoption in China reveals the most important cities, provinces and paths of child trafficking. Over 80% of the network can be reached by targeting four cities.

Models for preventing climate from warming by more than 2 °C assume implementing land-use change, such as reforestation, to store carbon. This study finds these models assume 8.8 Mha yr⁻¹ more cropland and, in some cases, massive reforestation and even afforestation.

Little is known about the contribution of peatlands to potable water resources at global and regional scales given that most peatlands are far away from major urbanized areas. This study analyses peatlands, human population and hydrometric datasets to identify hotspots where peatlands are crucial for water supply.