Socioeconomic scenarios

Socioeconomic scenarios are plausible representations of the future based on coherent, and internally consistent, assumptions about the evolution of key social and economic drivers. Examples of these drivers are economic growth, technological development and population. They are not intended to be predictive, but are designed to explore the implications of different futures.

Latest Research and Reviews

  • Research | | open

    There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency.

    • Elke Stehfest
    • , Willem-Jan van Zeist
    • , Hugo Valin
    • , Petr Havlik
    • , Alexander Popp
    • , Page Kyle
    • , Andrzej Tabeau
    • , Daniel Mason-D’Croz
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Benjamin L. Bodirsky
    • , Katherine Calvin
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Florian Humpenöder
    • , Hermann Lotze-Campen
    • , Hans van Meijl
    •  & Keith Wiebe
  • Research |

    Urgent action is needed to ensure food security and mitigate climate change. Through a multi-model comparison exercise, this study shows the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate change mitigation if mitigation policies are carelessly designed.

    • Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Christoph Bertram
    • , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
    • , Valentina Bosetti
    • , Jessica Callen
    • , Jacques Després
    • , Jonathan Doelman
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , Stefan Frank
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Petr Havlik
    • , Florian Humpenöder
    • , Jason F. L. Koopman
    • , Hans van Meijl
    • , Yuki Ochi
    • , Alexander Popp
    • , Andreas Schmitz
    • , Kiyoshi Takahashi
    •  & Detlef van Vuuren
  • Research | | open

    The prevalence of improved housing (with improved drinking water and sanitation, sufficient living area and durable construction) in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa doubled between 2000 and 2015.

    • Lucy S. Tusting
    • , Donal Bisanzio
    • , Graham Alabaster
    • , Ewan Cameron
    • , Richard Cibulskis
    • , Michael Davies
    • , Seth Flaxman
    • , Harry S. Gibson
    • , Jakob Knudsen
    • , Charles Mbogo
    • , Fredros O. Okumu
    • , Lorenz von Seidlein
    • , Daniel J. Weiss
    • , Steve W. Lindsay
    • , Peter W. Gething
    •  & Samir Bhatt
    Nature 568, 391-394

News and Comment

  • Comments and Opinion |

    Scenarios have supported assessments of the IPCC for decades. A new scenario ensemble and a suite of visualization and analysis tools is now made available alongside the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report to improve transparency and re-use of scenario data across research communities.

    • Daniel Huppmann
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Elmar Kriegler
    • , Volker Krey
    •  & Keywan Riahi
    Nature Climate Change 8, 1027-1030
  • Comments and Opinion |

    Climate change mitigation scenarios are finding a wider set of users, including companies and financial institutions. Increased collaboration between scenario producers and these new communities will be mutually beneficial, educating companies and investors on climate risks while grounding climate science in real-world needs.

    • Christopher Weber
    • , David L. McCollum
    • , Jae Edmonds
    • , Pedro Faria
    • , Alban Pyanet
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Massimo Tavoni
    • , Jakob Thoma
    •  & Elmar Kriegler
  • News and Views |

    For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

    • Vanessa Schweizer
  • Comments and Opinion |

    Increasing demand for solution-oriented environmental assessments brings significant opportunities and challenges at the science–policy–society interface. Solution-oriented assessments should enable inclusive deliberative learning processes about policy alternatives and their practical consequences.

    • Martin Kowarsch
    • , Jason Jabbour
    • , Christian Flachsland
    • , Marcel T. J. Kok
    • , Robert Watson
    • , Peter M. Haas
    • , Jan C. Minx
    • , Joseph Alcamo
    • , Jennifer Garard
    • , Pauline Riousset
    • , László Pintér
    • , Cameron Langford
    • , Yulia Yamineva
    • , Christoph von Stechow
    • , Jessica O'Reilly
    •  & Ottmar Edenhofer