Featured
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Article
| Open AccessDemographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States
Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted.
- Kelsea Best
- , Qian He
- & Tom Logan
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Article
| Open AccessReputations for treatment of outgroup members can prevent the emergence of political segregation in cooperative networks
Social networks often segregate based on political identities. We show that such segregation is reduced when people know how others behave towards those from their outgroup and ingroup
- Brent Simpson
- , Bradley Montgomery
- & David Melamed
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Article
| Open AccessThe social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
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Article
| Open AccessAssessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models
Novel indicators of infectious disease prevalence could improve real-time surveillance and support healthcare planning. Here, the authors show that sales data for non-prescription medications from a UK high street retailer can improve the accuracy of models forecasting mortality from respiratory infections.
- Elizabeth Dolan
- , James Goulding
- & Laila J. Tata
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Article
| Open AccessFlood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains
This study finds that flood insurance policy design affects economic development in floodplains and, consequently, flood risk in Europe. Therefore, the authors advocate for flood insurance design to be integrated in climate change adaptation policy.
- Max Tesselaar
- , W. J. Wouter Botzen
- & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
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Article
| Open AccessRelational visual representations underlie human social interaction recognition
Humans are adept at recognizing social interactions in visual scenes. Here, the authors develop a computational model of this ability, and show that humans can make complex social interaction judgments using relational visual representations.
- Manasi Malik
- & Leyla Isik
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Article
| Open AccessMessage framing to promote solar panels
Green technologies foster the use of green energy; however, large investment costs hinder adoption. In a large-scale field experiment, the authors show that message framing can promote a serious commitment to solar panels among the broader public.
- Dominik Bär
- , Stefan Feuerriegel
- & Markus Weinmann
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Article
| Open AccessThe asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets
Here the authors explore the connectedness of the carbon, energy, and metals markets. They find asymmetric effects of climate risk with higher physical risk impacts on upward risk spillovers, and greater transition risk effects on the downside risk of kurtosis connectedness.
- Yuqin Zhou
- , Shan Wu
- & Lavinia Rognone
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Article
| Open AccessNeural and computational underpinnings of biased confidence in human reinforcement learning
The mechanism of confidence formation in learning remains poorly understood. Here, the authors show that both dorsal and ventral prefrontal networks encode confidence, but only the ventral network incorporates the valence-induced bias.
- Chih-Chung Ting
- , Nahuel Salem-Garcia
- & Maël Lebreton
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Article
| Open AccessA human-machine collaborative approach measures economic development using satellite imagery
A human-AI collaborative computer vision algorithm produces grid-level economic statistics using satellite images and lightweight human annotation, revealing granular development patterns in North Korea and five other least developed Asian countries.
- Donghyun Ahn
- , Jeasurk Yang
- & Sungwon Park
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Article
| Open AccessRedox signaling-driven modulation of microbial biosynthesis and biocatalysis
Microbial communication has significant implications for industrial applications, but constructing communication systems which support coordinated behaviors is challenging. Here, the authors report an electron transfer triggered redox communication network and demonstrate its ability to coordinate microbial metabolism.
- Na Chen
- , Na Du
- & Quan Yuan
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
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Article
| Open AccessHuman consumption of seaweed and freshwater aquatic plants in ancient Europe
Marine food resources are commonly thought to have become marginal food or abandoned altogether with the spread of agriculture in Europe. Here, the authors use biomarkers in dental calculus to track widespread consumption of seaweed and aquatic plants through the Neolithic and into the Early Middle Ages.
- Stephen Buckley
- , Karen Hardy
- & Maria Eulalia Subirà
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Article
| Open AccessPartner choice and cooperation in social dilemmas can increase resource inequality
Cooperation is more likely when individuals can choose their interaction partner. However, here, the authors show that partner choice can increase resource inequality in a public goods game when people differ in resources and productivity needed for cooperation.
- Mirre Stallen
- , Luuk L. Snijder
- & Carsten K. W. De Dreu
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Article
| Open AccessDevelopment and validation of the pandemic fatigue scale
In this study the authors introduce a measure of pandemic fatigue and report the existence of, and changes in, pandemic fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic. They also identify correlates of pandemic fatigue and show that those who experienced more pandemic fatigue were less likely to adhere to various health-protective behaviors.
- Lau Lilleholt
- , Ingo Zettler
- & Robert Böhm
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Review Article
| Open AccessThe promise of data science for health research in Africa
In this Review article, the authors discuss emerging efforts to build ethical governance frameworks for data science health research in Africa and the opportunities to advance these through investments by African governments and institutions, international funding organizations and collaborations for research and capacity development.
- Clement A. Adebamowo
- , Shawneequa Callier
- & Sally N. Adebamowo
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Article
| Open AccessThe global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change
Neman and Noy estimate the global climate change costs of extreme weather and find that US\(\$\) 143 B/yr of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. The majority of this is due to human loss of life.
- Rebecca Newman
- & Ilan Noy
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Article
| Open AccessLocation is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs
This study tests the case for the absorption of current fossil fuel workers in emerging green jobs from the perspective of their skills and location. It finds location to be a barrier in a Just Transition for these workers.
- Junghyun Lim
- , Michaël Aklin
- & Morgan R. Frank
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Article
| Open AccessA net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage
This study indicates that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel in China’s power generation system could reduce the power shortage rate by up to 9% in 2050, and increase system resilience during weather events relative to a zero fossil fuel system.
- Jing-Li Fan
- , Zezheng Li
- & Bo Shen
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Article
| Open AccessCausal inference from cross-sectional earth system data with geographical convergent cross mapping
Temporal causation models perform poorly in causal inference for variables with limited temporal variations. This paper establishes a causal inference model, which can reveal the nonlinear complex casual associations based on cross-sectional Earth System data.
- Bingbo Gao
- , Jianyu Yang
- & Jinfeng Wang
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Article
| Open AccessNonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Here the authors find economic damage from El Niño far greater than benefits from La Niña on the global economy, leading to an increased economic loss as ENSO variability intensifies under greenhouse warming.
- Yi Liu
- , Wenju Cai
- & Ying Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessAir quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy
U.S. federal climate policies can reduce air pollutant emissions and associated health impacts from fine particulate matter. However, near-term CO2 reductions alone are insufficient to address racial/ethnic disparities in pollution exposure.
- Paul Picciano
- , Minghao Qiu
- & Noelle E. Selin
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Article
| Open AccessCross-national analyses require additional controls to account for the non-independence of nations
Nations are connected in many ways, yet cross-national analyses often assume they are independent. Here, the authors show that previous studies may not have sufficiently accounted for this non-independence of nations.
- Scott Claessens
- , Thanos Kyritsis
- & Quentin D. Atkinson
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Article
| Open AccessFood inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries
The 21st Century has witnessed a series of global food crises, though little is known about how rising food prices affect child nutrition. The authors show that increases in the real price of food elevate the risk of a child being wasted, which in turn poses a serious risk for their survival.
- Derek Headey
- & Marie Ruel
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Article
| Open AccessNeurofunctional underpinnings of individual differences in visual episodic memory performance
The neural basis of individual differences in episodic memory performance is not well understood. Here, the authors show in a large fMRI dataset that activity of the hippocampus, orbitofrontal cortex and posterior cingulate cortex accounts for individual variability in memory performance.
- Léonie Geissmann
- , David Coynel
- & Dominique J. F. de Quervain
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Article
| Open AccessQuantifying the causal impact of biological risk factors on healthcare costs
Understanding the causal impact that risk factors have on healthcare cost is critical to evaluate healthcare interventions. Here, authors show that waist circumference, body mass index, and blood pressure have robust causal impact on healthcare cost.
- Jiwoo Lee
- , Sakari Jukarainen
- & Andrea Ganna
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Article
| Open AccessSubjective socioeconomic status and income inequality are associated with self-reported morality across 67 countries
People differ in the extent to which they experience a lack of economic resources compared to others. Here, the authors show that such experiences at the individual level as well as income inequality at the national level are associated with self-reported morality-related outcomes.
- Christian T. Elbæk
- , Panagiotis Mitkidis
- & Tobias Otterbring
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Article
| Open AccessSurvey of open science practices and attitudes in the social sciences
Open science practices are becoming more common in the social sciences, but there is limited data on their popularity and prevalence. Here, using survey data, the authors provide evidence that levels of adoption are relatively high and underestimated by many in the field.
- Joel Ferguson
- , Rebecca Littman
- & John-Henry Pezzuto
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal patterns in egocentric communication networks
Personal communication networks through mobile phones and online platforms can be characterized by patterns of tie strengths. The authors propose a model to explain driving mechanisms of emerging tie strength heterogeneity in social networks, observing similarity of patterns across various datasets.
- Gerardo Iñiguez
- , Sara Heydari
- & Jari Saramäki
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Article
| Open AccessAdjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Emerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
- Ajay Gambhir
- , Shivika Mittal
- & Jason A. Lowe
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Article
| Open AccessInequalities in COVID-19 severe morbidity and mortality by country of birth in Sweden
The impacts of COVID-19 have been more severe in certain population groups, including migrants. In this total-population study from Sweden, the authors investigate the association between country of birth and COVID-19 related hospitalisation and death and describe how it changed over the first two years of the pandemic.
- Mikael Rostila
- , Agneta Cederström
- & Sol P. Juárez
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Article
| Open AccessTruck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system
Truck platooning allows for trucks to travel synchronously in close proximity to improve fuel efficiency. Here, authors evaluate the decarbonization effects of platooning on the vehicle-road system at a large-scale road network level revealing a trade-off between emission reduction and cost rise.
- Huailei Cheng
- , Yuhong Wang
- & Tian Jin
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Article
| Open AccessHow climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
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Article
| Open AccessOvercoming attenuation bias in regressions using polygenic indices
Measurement error in polygenic indices attenuates their power to predict complex traits. Here, the authors compare two approaches addressing this attenuation bias and provide guidance on which approach to apply in various scenarios.
- Hans van Kippersluis
- , Pietro Biroli
- & Cornelius A. Rietveld
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal air pollution exposure and poverty
This study shows that 716 million of the world’s lowest income people live in areas with unsafe levels of air pollution, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. With limited access to healthcare, they are especially vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- & Nadezda Leonova
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Article
| Open AccessInterconnectedness enhances network resilience of multimodal public transportation systems for Safe-to-Fail urban mobility
The growing interconnectedness of networked infrastructures has a complex impact on resilience in urban environments. Xu and Chopra quantify these effects using network resilience analysis and highlight the benefits of topological interconnectedness within multimodal public transportation systems.
- Zizhen Xu
- & Shauhrat S. Chopra
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Article
| Open AccessBuilt structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries
Extent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures strongly affect resource demand of national economies worldwide. Their influence on final energy and CO2 emissions is almost as large as that of gross domestic product (GDP).
- Helmut Haberl
- , Markus Löw
- & Juan Antonio Duro
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Article
| Open AccessGender differences in the intention to study math increase with math performance
The authors show that there is a positive and linear relationship between the probability of intending to pursue math and math performance, and that this relationship is stronger among boys than among girls.
- Thomas Breda
- , Elyès Jouini
- & Clotilde Napp
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Article
| Open AccessThe narrowing gap in developed and developing country emission intensities reduces global trade’s carbon leakage
International trade redistributes production activities to regions with varying emission intensities. This study finds that the convergence of emission intensities between the global South - North and changes in trade patterns have resulted in declining net emissions in trade in the past decade.
- Jing Meng
- , Jingwen Huo
- & Kuishuang Feng
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Article
| Open AccessPractical intelligent diagnostic algorithm for wearable 12-lead ECG via self-supervised learning on large-scale dataset
Intelligent diagnostic algorithms for ECG are becoming increasingly important to reduce the workload of cardiologists, enable telemedicine and real-time monitoring. Here, the authors show a model based on self-supervised learning that can classify 60 diagnostic terms for ECG.
- Jiewei Lai
- , Huixin Tan
- & Wei Yang
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Article
| Open AccessHigher convergence of human-great ape enteric eukaryotic viromes in central African forest than in a European zoo: a One Health analysis
Here, the authors conduct a multidisciplinary study of human-great ape viral sharing in Cameroon and a European zoo, finding that environmental co-use enables more enteric virome sharing, virome convergence, and adenovirus and enterovirus sharing between Cameroonian humans and apes.
- Victor Narat
- , Maud Salmona
- & Tamara Giles-Vernick
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Article
| Open AccessDemonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk
This paper presents a method for quantifying the benefits of beaches in reducing storm and long-term coastal flood risk. This method can contribute to cost-effective decision-making on climate change adaptation in many of the world’s coasts.
- Alexandra Toimil
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Gonéri Le Cozannet
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Article
| Open AccessEstimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study
Global COVID-19 vaccine distribution has been inequitable. In this mathematical modelling study, the authors estimate the proportion of deaths that could have been averted in twenty low- and lower-middle-income countries if vaccines had been more widely available early in the pandemic.
- Nicolò Gozzi
- , Matteo Chinazzi
- & Alessandro Vespignani
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Article
| Open AccessTrust within human-machine collectives depends on the perceived consensus about cooperative norms
Humans and machines are increasingly participating in mixed collectives in which they can help or hinder each other. Here the authors show the way in which people treat machines differently than humans in a stylized society of beneficiaries, helpers, punishers, and trustors.
- Kinga Makovi
- , Anahit Sargsyan
- & Talal Rahwan
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Article
| Open AccessThe global power sector’s low-carbon transition may enhance sustainable development goal achievement
The low-carbon power transition could enhance global sustainable development goal (SDG) progress, but hinder that of developing economies under fossil fuel-based scenarios. Meanwhile, SDG synergies and trade-offs exist within and between economies.
- Kun Peng
- , Kuishuang Feng
- & Jiashuo Li
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Comment
| Open AccessStakeholder alliances are essential to reduce the scourge of plastic pollution
Progress to reduce plastic pollution has been painfully slow and the consequent damage to the natural environment and to human health is likely to increase further. This has been because the views and ways of working of four distinct stakeholder communities are not sufficiently well integrated. (1) Scientists, (2) industry, (3) society at large and (4) those making policy and legislation must in future find ways to work together.
- Richard S. Lampitt
- , Stephen Fletcher
- & Adrian Whyle
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Article
| Open AccessState-level macro-economic factors moderate the association of low income with brain structure and mental health in U.S. children
Lower income is associated with smaller hippocampal volume and mental health problems. Here, the authors show that this association is weaker in areas of the United States that are less expensive or that have a stronger social safety net.
- David G. Weissman
- , Mark L. Hatzenbuehler
- & Katie A. McLaughlin
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Article
| Open AccessBehavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased income diversity of urban encounters
Mobile phone data reveals a significant decrease in the income diversity of urban encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA, even though overall mobility returned to pre-pandemic levels by late 2021. This was mainly due to persistent behavioral changes including less willingness to explore new places.
- Takahiro Yabe
- , Bernardo García Bulle Bueno
- & Esteban Moro
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Article
| Open AccessCalibration of cognitive tests to address the reliability paradox for decision-conflict tasks
Typical cognitive tasks can produce robust experimental effects yet not measure individual differences reliably. Here the authors use hierarchical Bayesian analysis to develop and calibrate tasks that can efficiently achieve good reliability.
- Talira Kucina
- , Lindsay Wells
- & Andrew Heathcote