Projection and prediction articles from across Nature Portfolio

Latest Research and Reviews

Research
03 June 2023 | Open Access

Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate

In this study, the authors use eddy-resolving climate model simulations and project an almost linear increase of extreme atmospheric rivers with global warming and a doubling of their occurrence under a high emission scenario.
- Shuyu Wang
- , Xiaohui Ma
- & Bolan Gan
Nature Communications 14, 3219
Research
02 June 2023 | Open Access

Uncertainty in non-CO₂ greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

The potential for the mitigation of global non-CO₂ greenhouse gases is highly uncertain. Harmsen et al. estimate this uncertainty and show that it has large implications for the feasibility of reaching the Paris Climate Agreement targets.
- Mathijs Harmsen
- , Charlotte Tabak
- & Detlef van Vuuren
Nature Communications 14, 2949
Research
30 May 2023 | Open Access

Future climate change will increase risk to mangrove health in Northern Australia

The health of mangroves from the Gulf of Carpentaria will be affected by increasingly frequent abnormal sea levels and increased heat stress in the future, according to model simulations driven by two plausible future climate scenarios
- Christine T. Y. Chung
- , Pandora Hope
- & Norman C. Duke
Communications Earth & Environment 4, 192
Research
27 May 2023 | Open Access

The important role of African emissions reductions in projected local rainfall changes
- Drew Shindell
- , Luke Parsons
- & Charles Heaps
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6, 47
Research
25 May 2023 | Open Access

Sea surface warming patterns drive hydrological sensitivity uncertainties

The drivers of uncertainties in hydrological sensitivity, the global-mean precipitation response to warming, are currently not well understood. Here the authors show that the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature warming explains much of this uncertainty and could allow to constrain projections.
- Shipeng Zhang
- , Philip Stier
- & Minghuai Wang
Nature Climate Change, 1-9
Research
25 May 2023 | Open Access

Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate

Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent under all global warming scenarios, with flash drought risk over croplands increasing particularly sharply over Europe and the US, according to analyses of climate model simulations.
- Jordan I. Christian
- , Elinor R. Martin
- & Xiangming Xiao
Communications Earth & Environment 4, 165

All Research & Reviews

News and Comment

Comments & Opinion | 20 March 2023

The co-production of knowledge for climate science

Indigenous and Western knowledge ethically combined is uniquely suited to address ongoing climate challenges. To build an environment where Western and Indigenous knowledge systems thrive, funding institutions must value co-production of knowledge and be available to Indigenous experts.
- Kimberley Miner
- , Leslie Canavera
- & James Rattlingleaf
Nature Climate Change 13, 307-308
Research Highlights | 08 March 2023

Future riverine impact
- Martina Grecequet
Nature Climate Change 13, 211
Research Highlights | 27 February 2023

When and where the climate threshold will be reached
- Ananya Rastogi
Nature Computational Science 3, 121
Editorial | 10 February 2023

Unravelling ENSO complexity

Progress in understanding and modelling ENSO complexity provides a promising opportunity to both improve seasonal climate prediction and constrain future anthropogenic warming.

Nature Geoscience 16, 105
News & Views | 06 February 2023

Powering past coal is not enough

Modelled low-carbon pathways rarely incorporate processes reflecting social and political realities. Now two studies rise to this challenge by exploring the implications of a landmark initiative to phase out coal, showing that we need greater political ambition for faster transitions to keep a 1.5 °C outcome in sight.
- Ajay Gambhir
Nature Climate Change 13, 117-118
Comments & Opinion | 17 January 2023

Beware the lure of models
- Mark Buchanan
Nature Physics 19, 2