Epidemiology articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir can reduce COVID-19 severity when initiated within five days of symptom onset but the optimal timing within this window is unknown. Here, the authors emulate a randomised trial using electronic health records from Hong Kong and find evidence for a benefit of early treatment initiation.

    • Carlos K. H. Wong
    • , Jonathan J. Lau
    •  & Joseph T. Wu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relation between daily meal and fasting timing with cardiovascular disease incidence remains unclear. Here, authors show that a later daily meal timing is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, especially in women. This study suggests that adopting earlier daily eating patterns may be beneficial for cardiovascular prevention.

    • Anna Palomar-Cros
    • , Valentina A. Andreeva
    •  & Bernard Srour

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Childhood obesity remains a global epidemic. Here, using objective measurements, the authors show that sedentary time increased from 6 h/day in childhood to 9 h/day in young adulthood, and was cumulatively associated with increased total and trunk fat mass. Both light or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity similarly partly reversed risk.

    • Andrew O. Agbaje
    • , Wei Perng
    •  & Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The geographic distribution of dengue has been expanding in recent decades, and Vietnam is one of the most severely affected countries. In this study, the authors use Bayesian hierarchical modelling to investigate the socio-environmental and climatic drivers of dengue incidence in Vietnam and how they vary across the country.

    • Rory Gibb
    • , Felipe J. Colón-González
    •  & Rachel Lowe

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Antivirals are now available for treating COVID-19 but must be used early in the course of infection to be effective. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess the potential public health impacts of antiviral use considering different levels of testing and country sociodemographic characteristics.

    • Alvin X. Han
    • , Emma Hannay
    •  & Colin A. Russell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Determining the prevalence of Long COVID is challenging because many symptoms attributed to the syndrome could have other causes. Here, the authors estimate the prevalence of Long COVID in Scotland by comparing rates of symptoms reported by people with and without history of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    • Claire E. Hastie
    • , David J. Lowe
    •  & Jill P. Pell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    COVID-19 has impacted health systems unequally and widespread SARS-CoV-2 testing for community surveillance has been limited globally. This work in Malawi highlights how river and wastewater can be used to detect emerging SARS-CoV-2 waves, identify variants of concern, and provide an early warning system.

    • Kayla G. Barnes
    • , Joshua I. Levy
    •  & Nicholas Feasey

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Understanding the immune responses of school-aged children to SARS-CoV-2 is important for designing public health measures. Here, the authors report findings from cross-sectional and longitudinal anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements in a school-based study in Zurich, Switzerland, from 2020-2022.

    • Alessia Raineri
    • , Thomas Radtke
    •  & Susi Kriemler

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Multimorbidity—the occurrence of chronic diseases together—represents a major challenge for healthcare systems. Here, the authors characterise multimorbidity patterns in a large dataset of patients residing in southern Spain and show the unequal distribution of multimorbidity patterns along different socioeconomic areas at the local level.

    • Javier Alvarez-Galvez
    • , Esther Ortega-Martin
    •  & Jesus Carretero-Bravo

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Novel indicators of infectious disease prevalence could improve real-time surveillance and support healthcare planning. Here, the authors show that sales data for non-prescription medications from a UK high street retailer can improve the accuracy of models forecasting mortality from respiratory infections.

    • Elizabeth Dolan
    • , James Goulding
    •  & Laila J. Tata

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Post-acute COVID-19 condition is difficult to quantify because it includes a range of symptoms that may have other causes. In this study, the authors use primary care data from England and Catalonia, Spain, to estimate the incidence of the condition and identify symptoms that occur more frequently following infection than in uninfected controls.

    • Kristin Kostka
    • , Elena Roel
    •  & Annika M. Jödicke

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Pneumococcal vaccination has been shown to promote emergence of non-vaccine S. pneumoniae serotypes. Here, the authors use data from Malawi to investigate whether vaccine introduction also results in changes in metabolic, virulence, and antimicrobial resistance profiles of circulating strains.

    • Uri Obolski
    • , Todd D. Swarthout
    •  & Robert S. Heyderman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relationship between circadian function and frailty is not well understood. Here, the authors show that disturbances in circadian rest-activity rhythms were associated with an elevated frailty risk and faster progress of frailty in older adults.

    • Ruixue Cai
    • , Lei Gao
    •  & Peng Li

  • Article
    | Open Access

    There is a need for an accurate measure of pulmonary oxygenation function that can be used as an intermediate endpoint in pragmatic clinical trials, to increase statistical power and efficiency. Here, the authors show that the S/F94, a modification of the S/F ratio, is a simple, meaningful and effective intermediate outcome measure.

    • Maaike C. Swets
    • , Steven Kerr
    •  & J. Kenneth Baillie

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 incidence. The model accounts for changes in SARS-CoV-2 variant and population immunity, and here they use it to investigate epidemic dynamics in French Polynesia.

    • Lloyd A. C. Chapman
    • , Maite Aubry
    •  & Adam J. Kucharski

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    The superspreading that characterized SARS and now COVID-19 can be rapidly quantified; however, its implications for outbreak control were never well understood. Recent studies point to its profound impact on outbreak dynamics and prospects for effective control of a future Disease X. These insights necessitate research into the mechanisms, impact and different modes of superspreading more widely.

    • Bjarke Frost Nielsen
    • , Kim Sneppen
    •  & Lone Simonsen

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    In this Comment, the authors describe recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in cat shelters in Seoul, South Korea. They discuss potential routes of transmission and describe implications for surveillance of spillover infections in animals in non-agricultural settings.

    • Younjung Kim
    • , Guillaume Fournié
    •  & Pierre Nouvellet

  • Article
    | Open Access

    SARS-CoV-2-associated mortality estimates for sub-Saharan Africa are uncertain due to lack of comprehensive surveillance systems. Here, the authors analyse data from a detailed surveillance system in Kilifi, Kenya and find that excess mortality rates were relatively low, except for older adults.

    • M. Otiende
    • , A. Nyaguara
    •  & J. A. G. Scott

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study assesses the effectiveness of a second COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine against severe disease using data from Chile. The authors find that the effectiveness of the second mRNA booster was high with a range of different background vaccination schemes, but there was evidence of waning over time.

    • Alejandro Jara
    • , Cristobal Cuadrado
    •  & Rafael Araos

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Identification of areas with risk factors for spillover of viruses from animals to humans could assist with early detection of emerging infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise potential risks for spillover of SARS-like viruses from bats to humans and identify geographical regions in which multiple risk factors cluster together.

    • Renata L. Muylaert
    • , David A. Wilkinson
    •  & David T. S. Hayman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The duration of symptomatic COVID-19 and its impacts on health and quality of life are not well understood. In this study, the authors report results from a survey of ~275,000 adults in England and find that persistent COVID-19 is relatively rare but is associated with poorer mental health and health-related quality of life.

    • Christina J. Atchison
    • , Bethan Davies
    •  & Paul Elliott

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Digital proximity tracing apps were widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic but have not been thoroughly evaluated. Here, the authors use data from students in Leuven, Belgium and estimate that apps notified only ~4% exposed contacts, had a 1–2 day delay for notification, and identified fewer infected contacts than manual contact tracing.

    • Caspar Geenen
    • , Joren Raymenants
    •  & Emmanuel André

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Non-falciparum malaria may cause a significant disease burden in highly endemic regions, but epidemiological data is limited. In this study, the authors estimate the incidence and prevalence of P. malariae, P. ovale spp., in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and compare to P. falciparum, which known to be common in the region.

    • Rachel Sendor
    • , Kristin Banek
    •  & Jonathan B. Parr

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors compare the viral kinetics of first and second SARS-CoV-2 infections using data from an occupational surveillance scheme in the National Basketball League. They find that second infections tend to have a faster clearance time, and that clearance times in first and second infections were positively correlated.

    • Stephen M. Kissler
    • , James A. Hay
    •  & Yonatan H. Grad

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) requires longer, more toxic therapy than rifampicin-sensitive disease and is associated with a higher occurrence of long-term sequelae. In this mathematical modeling study, the authors estimate that incident RR-TB in 2020 will be responsible for ~6.9 million disability-adjusted life years; 44% due to post-tuberculosis sequelae.

    • Nicolas A. Menzies
    • , Brian W. Allwood
    •  & Ted Cohen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Recent estimates of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) intake are generally unavailable. Here the authors show a global SSBs intake of 2.7 servings/week in 2018 in adults (range: 0.7 South Asia, 7.8 Latin America/Caribbean); intakes were higher among males, younger, more educated, and urban adults.

    • Laura Lara-Castor
    • , Renata Micha
    •  & Rubina Hakeem

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate the incidence and risk factors for post-COVID condition among people who had a mild initial SARS-CoV-2 infection in Norway. They use national linked registry data including ~215,000 individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test who were not hospitalised and followed them up for 180 days after infection.

    • B-A. Reme
    • , J. Gjesvik
    •  & K. Magnusson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a haematological malignancy that is preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Here, the authors use a mechanistic model fitted to surveillance data from the United States to investigate whether variation in MM is best explained by incidence of MGUS or rate of progression to MM.

    • John H. Huber
    • , Mengmeng Ji
    •  & Su-Hsin Chang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been developed to provide broader protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. In this cohort study based on electronic health records from the United States, the authors estimate the effectiveness of bivalent, compared to monovalent, vaccines and no vaccination against a range of COVID-19-related outcomes.

    • Hung Fu Tseng
    • , Bradley K. Ackerson
    •  & Lei Qian

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Benefits of breastfeeding are well established, but a comprehensive study about its impacts on hospitalizations is lacking. Here, the authors use Korean nationwide birth cohort data (n = 1,608,540) and find that breastfeeding for at least 6 months was associated with a lower risk for subsequent hospital admissions.

    • Jeong-Seon Lee
    • , Jae Il Shin
    •  & Dong Keon Yon

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    WHO guidelines for classification of malaria elimination in a country require that the risk of human infection from zoonotic, as well as nonzoonotic, malaria parasites is negligible. In this Comment, the authors discuss the implications of this policy for countries, such as Malaysia, with no recent reported nonzoonotic cases but ongoing zoonotic transmission.

    • Kimberly M. Fornace
    • , Chris J. Drakeley
    •  & Kamruddin Ahmed

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate immune responses following a third (booster) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination dose in a cohort of healthcare professionals in Denmark. They find stronger immune responses among those with a prior infection, and correlation between lower antibody responses and higher risk of subsequent breakthrough infection.

    • Laura Pérez-Alós
    • , Cecilie Bo Hansen
    •  & Peter Garred

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Types of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) differ in frequency and fitness. These findings uncover shared genetic architecture, suggest evolutionary trade-offs between CH types, and detail elevated leukemia risk in individuals with overlapping types of CH.

    • Derek W. Brown
    • , Liam D. Cato
    •  & Mitchell J. Machiela

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Control of rabies in Africa through mass vaccination of dogs may be compromised by cross-border transmission. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling and a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that coordinating rabies control measures across borders could lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa.

    • A. Bucher
    • , A. Dimov
    •  & J. Zinsstag

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 immunity decreases transmission through reduction in contagiousness of cases or susceptibility of contacts. Here, the authors use testing and contact data from Geneva, Switzerland and find that increased protection of contacts was the main driver of reduced transmission.

    • Denis Mongin
    • , Nils Bürgisser
    •  & Delphine Sophie Courvoisier

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