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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Accurate seasonal forecasts of sea ice are highly valuable, particularly in the context of sea ice loss due to global warming. A new machine learning tool for sea ice forecasting offers a substantial increase in accuracy over current physics-based dynamical model predictions.
- Tom R. Andersson
- , J. Scott Hosking
- & Emily Shuckburgh
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars
Material production accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors show that resource efficiency and circular-economy strategies can allow for cumulative emission reductions of 20–52 Gt CO2-eq from residential buildings and 13–26 Gt CO2e-eq from cars by 2050.
- Stefan Pauliuk
- , Niko Heeren
- & Edgar G. Hertwich
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Article
| Open AccessThe underappreciated role of agricultural soil nitrogen oxide emissions in ozone pollution regulation in North China
Summertime ozone air pollution in North China remains severe. Here the authors find large biogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides in North China, mainly driven by fertilizer application, challenge the mitigation of ozone pollution by only reducing combustion induced ozone precursors’ emissions.
- Xiao Lu
- , Xingpei Ye
- & Yuanhang Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessSpin-state reconfiguration induced by alternating magnetic field for efficient oxygen evolution reaction
The oxygen evolution reaction in magnetic catalysts is related with their spin configuration. Here, the authors propose a magnetic-stimulation method to rearrange spin electron occupation in thermal-differentiated superlattices.
- Gang Zhou
- , Peifang Wang
- & Lizhe Liu
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Article
| Open AccessPurple sulfur bacteria fix N2 via molybdenum-nitrogenase in a low molybdenum Proterozoic ocean analogue
N2 fixation was key to the expansion of life on Earth, but which organisms fixed N2 and if Mo-nitrogenase was functional in the low Mo early ocean is unknown. Here, the authors show that purple sulfur bacteria fix N2 using Mo-nitrogenase in a Proterozoic ocean analogue, despite low Mo conditions.
- Miriam Philippi
- , Katharina Kitzinger
- & Marcel M. M. Kuypers
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Article
| Open AccessClosing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories
Methane emissions from oil and gas systems are underestimated in official inventories. Here the authors synthesize thousands of field measurements and develop an inventory-based model for a better understanding of why this underestimation exists and how it can be fixed.
- Jeffrey S. Rutherford
- , Evan D. Sherwin
- & Adam R. Brandt
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Comment
| Open AccessGreen infrastructure can limit but not solve air pollution injustice
Outdoor air pollution contributes to millions of deaths worldwide yet air pollution has differential exposures across racial/ethnic groups and socioeconomic status. While green infrastructure has the potential to decrease air pollution and provide other benefits to human health, vegetation alone cannot resolve health disparities related to air pollution injustice. We discuss how unequal access to green infrastructure can limit air quality improvements for marginalized communities and provide strategies to move forward.
- Viniece Jennings
- , Colleen E. Reid
- & Christina H. Fuller
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Article
| Open AccessFuture global urban water scarcity and potential solutions
This paper quantifies global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 and explores potential solutions. One third to nearly half of the global urban population is projected to face water scarcity problems.
- Chunyang He
- , Zhifeng Liu
- & Brett A. Bryan
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Article
| Open AccessIrrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals
The global water demands of irrigated agriculture are estimated through country surveys or through hydrological models, but both approaches are taxing. Here, the authors show that they can simply be estimated as a function of irrigated areas.
- Arnald Puy
- , Emanuele Borgonovo
- & Andrea Saltelli
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Article
| Open AccessOrganic additive release from plastic to seawater is lower under deep-sea conditions
Plastics are major marine pollutants, and while research suggests that they can release potential harmful additives into seawater, how environmental conditions influence this is unknown. Here the authors determine that byproducts released from microplastics are less under deep-sea conditions versus surface.
- Vincent Fauvelle
- , Marc Garel
- & Richard Sempéré
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Article
| Open AccessGermanium-lead perovskite light-emitting diodes
Lead toxicity poses a big hurdle for the commercialization of perovskite optoelectronics, hence reducing the environmental impact holds the answer for its future application. To tackle this challenge, the authors utilize germanium to reduce the lead content, enabling highly luminescent eco-friendly compound for LEDs.
- Dexin Yang
- , Guoling Zhang
- & Dawei Di
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Article
| Open AccessCommon irrigation drivers of freshwater salinisation in river basins worldwide
Freshwater salinisation is a growing water quality problem, but impacts and drivers across regional to global scales have been lacking. A new assessment of inter-regional freshwater salinisation demonstrates the importance of irrigation as a driver of salinisation.
- Josefin Thorslund
- , Marc F. P. Bierkens
- & Michelle T. H. van Vliet
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Article
| Open AccessEncapsulate α-MnO2 nanofiber within graphene layer to tune surface electronic structure for efficient ozone decomposition
Ozone is a major air pollutant, but its elimination is challenging. Here the authors encapsulate defective α-MnO2 nanofiber within ultrathin graphene shells to construct a hierarchical MnO2@graphene catalyst for ozone decomposition that possesses high activity and stability under humid conditions.
- Guoxiang Zhu
- , Wei Zhu
- & Yongfa Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessSolar energy and regional coordination as a feasible alternative to large hydropower in Southeast Asia
Hydropower dams in the Lower Mekong basin have profound impact on the riverine ecosystems. Here the authors use strategic dam planning and power system modelling to show that there are economically and technically feasible alternatives to these dams with solar energy and power trading.
- Kais Siala
- , Afm Kamal Chowdhury
- & Stefano Galelli
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Article
| Open AccessEvanescent waves modulate energy efficiency of photocatalysis within TiO2 coated optical fibers illuminated using LEDs
Coupling photocatalyst-coated optical fibers (P-OFs) with LEDs shows potential in environmental applications. Here the authors report a strategy to maximize P-OF light usage and simultaneously establish a new platform to quantify photocatalytic performance.
- Yinghao Song
- , Li Ling
- & Chii Shang
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Article
| Open AccessStorage and export of microbial biomass across the western Greenland Ice Sheet
Microbes that colonise ice sheet surfaces are important to the carbon cycle, but their biomass and transport remains unquantified. Here, the authors reveal substantial microbial carbon fluxes across Greenland’s ice surface, in quantities that may sustain subglacial heterotrophs and fuel methanogenesis.
- T. D. L. Irvine-Fynn
- , A. Edwards
- & A. Hubbard
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Article
| Open AccessCo-benefits of protecting mangroves for biodiversity conservation and carbon storage
Conserving mangrove biodiversity has numerous co-benefits, including climate change-mitigation. Here the authors demonstrate that blue carbon storage in mangroves can be best sustained by combining site-specific dominant species with other species with contrasting functional traits.
- Md Mizanur Rahman
- , Martin Zimmer
- & Ming Xu
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Article
| Open AccessCommercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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Review Article
| Open AccessCity footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability
Whether or not a city achieves absolute sustainability is difficult to assess with existing frameworks. Here the authors, in a review, show that a further integration of consumption-based accounting and benchmarking is necessary to aid the monitoring and assessment of Sustainable Development Goals in cities.
- Thomas Wiedmann
- & Cameron Allen
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Article
| Open AccessEmission impacts of China’s solid waste import ban and COVID-19 in the copper supply chain
Advanced copper supply chain modeling shows China’s new waste trade policy may increase pollution, while limiting other low-value imports reverses this trend. Here the authors show that recycling is vulnerable to supply chain shocks, requiring investment during recoveries to promote a circular economy.
- John Ryter
- , Xinkai Fu
- & Elsa A. Olivetti
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Article
| Open AccessMechanistic analysis of multiple processes controlling solar-driven H2O2 synthesis using engineered polymeric carbon nitride
Solar-driven H2O2 production presents a renewable approach to chemical synthesis. Here, authors perform a mechanistic analysis on the contribution of the sodium cyanaminate moiety to the 2-electron oxygen reduction reaction performance of polymeric carbon nitride frameworks.
- Yubao Zhao
- , Peng Zhang
- & Wonyong Choi
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Article
| Open AccessSource sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.
- Erin E. McDuffie
- , Randall V. Martin
- & Michael Brauer
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Article
| Open AccessProjected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations
Social inequalities may be reflected in how ecosystem services are distributed among groups of people. Here the authors estimate the distribution of three ecosystem services across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the US between 2020 and 2100, finding that non-white and lower-income groups disproportionately bear the loss of ecosystem service benefits.
- Jesse D. Gourevitch
- , Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
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Article
| Open AccessUltrasonic activation of inert poly(tetrafluoroethylene) enables piezocatalytic generation of reactive oxygen species
Controlled generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) is essential in biological, chemical, and environmental fields. Here, the authors report that ultrasonication can induce polarization of inert poly(tetrafluoroethylene) to a piezoelectric electret and drive piezocatalytic generation of aqueous ROS.
- Yanfeng Wang
- , Yeming Xu
- & Guandao Gao
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Article
| Open AccessLateral advection supports nitrogen export in the oligotrophic open-ocean Gulf of Mexico
The middle of the Gulf of Mexico is stratified and highly oligotrophic, yet there are anomalously high fluxes of sinking particulate matter from the euphotic zone. Here the authors show that lateral advection of organic matter supports nitrogen export in the Gulf of Mexico’s open ocean.
- Thomas B. Kelly
- , Angela N. Knapp
- & Michael R. Stukel
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Review Article
| Open AccessProtein nanofibrils for next generation sustainable water purification
Water scarcity is a rapidly spreading global challenge but water purification technologies are often not sustainable. Here, the authors review the research on water purification technologies based on protein nanofibrils as a green and affordable solution to alleviate a water crisis.
- Mohammad Peydayesh
- & Raffaele Mezzenga
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Article
| Open AccessOpen fire exposure increases the risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia
Open fires can increase heavy exposure to hazardous particulate matters, and thus harm human health, particularly among the vulnerable individuals, such as pregnant women. Here, the authors show an association between maternal exposure to fire smoke and increased risk of pregnancy loss in South Asia.
- Tao Xue
- , Guannan Geng
- & Tong Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessBiodegradation of bio-sourced and synthetic organic electronic materials towards green organic electronics
Waste build-up from organic electronic components is a major environmental issue; biodegradable electronic materials could be a solution to this. Here, the authors report on the biodegradation of bio-sourced and synthetic electronic materials in industrial compost at different temperatures.
- Eduardo Di Mauro
- , Denis Rho
- & Clara Santato
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions
Mercury is a neurotoxin and pollutant with enhanced emissions from anthropogenic activities. Here, the authors develop a global emissions, transport, and human risk model and find substantial future losses in revenue and public health if emission reductions proposed by the Minamata Convention are delayed.
- Yanxu Zhang
- , Zhengcheng Song
- & Ping Li
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Article
| Open AccessWhen timing matters—misdesigned dam filling impacts hydropower sustainability
Filling of dams, when coinciding with droughts, can lead to severe downstream hydrology and ecology problems. The authors hence here provide a multisectoral perspective, using a dam in Ethiopia as an example, to develop adaptive filling solutions that support decision making, favourable filling timing and an effective filling policy.
- Marta Zaniolo
- , Matteo Giuliani
- & Andrea Castelletti
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Article
| Open AccessNutrient content and stoichiometry of pelagic Sargassum reflects increasing nitrogen availability in the Atlantic Basin
The macroalgae Sargassum has grown for centuries in the oligotrophic North Atlantic supported by natural nutrient sources and cycling. Here the authors show that changes in tissue nutrient contents since the 1980s reflect global anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment, causing blooms in the wider Atlantic basin.
- B. E. Lapointe
- , R. A. Brewton
- & P. L. Morton
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Article
| Open AccessThe kaolinite shuttle links the Great Oxidation and Lomagundi events
Expanded phosphorus availability possibly triggered a marine bioproduction boom after 2.3 billion years ago, but its delivery mechanisms remain unclear. Here we propose a kaolinite shuttle which efficiently adsorbs phosphorus in continental weathering settings and releases it under marine conditions.
- Weiduo Hao
- , Kaarel Mänd
- & Kurt O. Konhauser
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Article
| Open AccessElectron donation of non-oxide supports boosts O2 activation on nano-platinum catalysts
Activation of O2 is a critical step in heterogeneous catalytic oxidation. Here, the authors adopt the concept of increased electron donors induced by nitrogen vacancy to develop an efficient strategy for preparing highly active and stable catalysts for molecular O2 activation.
- Tao Gan
- , Jingxiu Yang
- & Gang Liu
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Article
| Open AccessMarine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization
Ice-cliff failure that leads to marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat. Here, the authors use 3D glacier models to investigate ice-cliff failure, derive a retreat rate relationship, and quantify mélange back force necessary to suppress ice-cliff failure.
- Anna J. Crawford
- , Douglas I. Benn
- & Thomas Zwinger
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Article
| Open AccessDeforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon
Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.
- Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho
- , Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho
- & Jan Börner
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Article
| Open AccessOn the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
Determining attractive response strategies for international climate policy is a complex task. Here, the authors develop a meta-model that disentangles the main uncertainties using full literature ranges and use it to directly compare the insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities.
- Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst
- , Andries F. Hof
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Comment
| Open AccessPhotocatalytic air purification mimicking the self-cleaning process of the atmosphere
Photocatalytic air purification is a promising technology that mimics nature’s photochemical process, but its practical applications are still limited despite considerable research efforts in recent decades. Here, we briefly discuss the progress and challenges associated with this technology.
- Fei He
- , Woojung Jeon
- & Wonyong Choi
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Article
| Open AccessCosmogenic in situ 14C-10Be reveals abrupt Late Holocene soil loss in the Andean Altiplano
The assessment of soil sustainability in prehistoric times requires comparing millennium-scale erosion rates with geological background rates. Here, the authors apply in situ cosmogenic 14C, 10Be, and 26Al to reveal rapid soil erosion on the Andean Altiplano in response to Late Holocene climate change and the onset of agropastoralism.
- Kristina Hippe
- , John D. Jansen
- & David Lundbek Egholm
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Article
| Open AccessWildfires increasingly impact western US fluvial networks
The authors investigate the impacts of wildfires on fluvial networks in the western US. They find that wildfires directly impacted ~6% of the total stream length between 1984 and 2014. When longitudinal propagation was included, they estimate that wildfires affected ~11% of the total stream length.
- Grady Ball
- , Peter Regier
- & David Van Horn
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Article
| Open AccessTracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 response has led to unparalleled changes in the functioning of human society, from travel restrictions to changes in consumption. Here the authors use high resolution satellite data to track the global reduction in marine traffic during the pandemic, and more recent hints of recovery to pre-lockdown levels.
- David March
- , Kristian Metcalfe
- & Brendan J. Godley
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Article
| Open AccessZooplankton grazing of microplastic can accelerate global loss of ocean oxygen
Microplastic pollution is a major threat to marine food webs, but the wider ranging impacts on global ocean biogeochemistry are poorly understood. Here the authors use an Earth system model to determine that zooplankton grazing on microplastics could exacerbate trends in ocean oxygen loss.
- K. Kvale
- , A. E. F. Prowe
- & A. Oschlies
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Article
| Open AccessEnergy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition
The global agrarian transition is characterized by a rise in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), whose energy impacts are unknown. Here, the authors assess how LSLAs change land use, finding that they necessitate greater investment in energy to meet demands, and greater greenhouse gas emissions.
- Lorenzo Rosa
- , Maria Cristina Rulli
- & Paolo D’Odorico
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal connections between El Nino and landslide impacts
This study investigates the relation between El Nino and landslide impacts. The authors show how El Nino and La Nina can cause swings in exposure of population to landslides that are as large as those due to rainy-season/dry-season variability in key locations, particularly South America.
- Robert Emberson
- , Dalia Kirschbaum
- & Thomas Stanley
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Article
| Open AccessAlternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
Many trajectories for reaching climate change mitigation targets exaggerate the long-term need for CO2 removal (CDR) because they assume an exponentially increasing carbon price. Here the authors analyse alternative carbon price pathways that halt warming while limiting CDR, and may be easier to implement.
- Jessica Strefler
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Ottmar Edenhofer
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Article
| Open AccessOrganic matter mineralization in modern and ancient ferruginous sediments
The conditions that shaped Earth’s evolution during the Archaean and Proterozoic Eons remain unknown. Using Lake Towuti in Indonesia as an analog of early oceans the authors find that microbial methanogenesis exerts a strong influence with important implications for the composition of Earth’s early atmosphere.
- André Friese
- , Kohen Bauer
- & Jens Kallmeyer
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Article
| Open AccessThe presence of Superfund sites as a determinant of life expectancy in the United States
Superfund sites have hazardous wastes that could affect the health of those who live near them, but this has not been assessed across the USA. Here the authors find that proximity to superfund sites decreases life expectancy and is further exacerbated by sociodemographic and climate change factors.
- Amin Kiaghadi
- , Hanadi S. Rifai
- & Clint N. Dawson
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased respiratory morbidity associated with exposure to a mature volcanic plume from a large Icelandic fissure eruption
Large fissure eruptions can cause air pollution events when the volcanic plume returns to the same area after the initial advisory has been lifted. Here, the authors show that these events had a significant impact on health care usage in Iceland, and the impact was exacerbated when advisories were not issued successfully.
- Hanne Krage Carlsen
- , Evgenia Ilyinskaya
- & Thorolfur Gudnason