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| Open AccessBenefit-cost analysis of coordinated strategies for control of rabies in Africa
Control of rabies in Africa through mass vaccination of dogs may be compromised by cross-border transmission. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling and a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that coordinating rabies control measures across borders could lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa.
- A. Bucher
- , A. Dimov
- & J. Zinsstag
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Article
| Open AccessThe cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030
Solar-powered standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying sub-Saharan Africa. Household electrification can be provided at 7c USD per person per day on average. To reflect inter- and intra-country variance, policymakers should consider electrification cost curves.
- Florian Egli
- , Churchill Agutu
- & Tobias S. Schmidt
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Article
| Open AccessGeospatial mapping of distribution grid with machine learning and publicly-accessible multi-modal data
Granular geospatial information of distribution grids is needed for various power system applications. Here the authors develop a machine-learning-based model which can accurately map distribution grids in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Zhecheng Wang
- , Arun Majumdar
- & Ram Rajagopal
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Article
| Open AccessHearing of malaria mosquitoes is modulated by a beta-adrenergic-like octopamine receptor which serves as insecticide target
Malaria mosquitoes use their ears to detect the flight tones of mating partners in the swarm as part of the courtship ritual. Here, the authors describe the auditory role of octopamine as a modulator of auditory plasticity in malaria mosquitoes and identify the main receptors involved in this process.
- Marcos Georgiades
- , Alexandros Alampounti
- & Marta Andrés
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Article
| Open AccessA spatio-temporal analysis investigating completeness and inequalities of global urban building data in OpenStreetMap
Building data is needed for assessing progress towards urban Sustainable Development Goals. An international team of scientists studies the spatial distribution of buildings in all cities globally and unveils their uneven coverage in OpenStreetMap.
- Benjamin Herfort
- , Sven Lautenbach
- & Alexander Zipf
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Article
| Open AccessAllocating capital-associated CO2 emissions along the full lifespan of capital investments helps diffuse emission responsibility
This study proposes an alternative approach for assessing CO2 responsibility of capital assets, through allocating required CO2 from the production of assets over their lifespans of use. It improves the assessment of emission equity across generations.
- Quanliang Ye
- , Maarten S. Krol
- & Klaus Hubacek
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Article
| Open AccessCarbon mitigation potential afforded by rooftop photovoltaic in China
Potential rooftop photovoltaic in China affords 4 billion tons of carbon mitigation in 2020 under ideal assumptions, equal to 70% of China’s carbon emissions from electricity and heat. Yet most cities have exploited the potential to a limited degree.
- Zhixin Zhang
- , Min Chen
- & Jinyue Yan
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling
This study finds that optimal global pooling generally provides greater financial resilience than optimal regional pooling and that both can significantly increase the risk diversification of the existing sovereign catastrophe risk pools.
- Alessio Ciullo
- , Eric Strobl
- & David N. Bresch
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Comment
| Open AccessA new Progressive Management Pathway for improving seaweed biosecurity
The rapid expansion and globalization of the seaweed production industry, combined with rising seawater temperatures and coastal eutrophication, has led to an increase in infectious diseases and pest outbreaks. Here, we propose a novel Progressive Management Pathway for improving Seaweed Biosecurity.
- Elizabeth J. Cottier-Cook
- , Jennefe P. Cabarubias
- & Melba G. Bondad-Reantaso
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Intergenerational nutrition benefits of India’s national school feeding program: Reality or a bridge too far?
- Suman Chakrabarti
- , Samuel Scott
- & Daniel Gilligan
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessIntergenerational nutrition benefits of India’s national school feeding program: Reality or a bridge too far?
- Harshpal Singh Sachdev
- , Clive Osmond
- & Tinku Thomas
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Article
| Open AccessInequality can double the energy required to secure universal decent living
In exploring the energy required to provide decent living for all, the authors find the costs of inequality to be far greater than that of population growth. Nonetheless, population growth remains important for other reasons.
- Joel Millward-Hopkins
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Comment
| Open AccessGlobal exposure to flood risk and poverty
Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard, with new research demonstrating that more than one in five people around the world live in areas directly exposed to 1-in-100 year flood risk. Exposure to such flood risk is particularly concentrated amongst lower income households worldwide.
- Thomas K. J. McDermott
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Article
| Open AccessFlood exposure and poverty in 188 countries
Floods are most devastating for those who can least afford to be hit. Globally, 1.8 billion people face high flood risks; 89% of them live in developing countries; 170 million of them live in extreme poverty making them most vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- , Melda Salhab
- & Bramka Arga Jafino
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| Open AccessAn index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible
Lack of private infrastructure remains a major challenge potentially hampering a societies’ ability to contain the transmission of communicable diseases. Areas at high risk in Africa are identified based on access to essential basic infrastructure.
- Isabel Günther
- , Kenneth Harttgen
- & Jürg Utzinger
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Article
| Open AccessElimination of human rabies in Goa, India through an integrated One Health approach
Dog vaccination is an effective rabies prevention measure, but widespread vaccination campaigns are challenging in settings like India with large free-roaming dog populations. Here, the authors describe a One Health campaign in Goa state which led to a large reduction of cases in dogs and elimination in humans.
- A. D. Gibson
- , G. Yale
- & R. J. Mellanby
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Article
| Open AccessEconomic shocks predict increases in child wasting prevalence
Economic shocks may lead to food insecurity and therefore acute child malnutrition (wasting). Here, the authors use data from Demographic Health Surveys to estimate impacts of past economic shocks on wasting and project possible effects of shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Derek D. Headey
- & Marie T. Ruel
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Article
| Open AccessHigh-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints
A lack of up-to-date population figures may hamper effective decision-making. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian model to estimate population data at high resolution in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- Gianluca Boo
- , Edith Darin
- & Andrew J. Tatem
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Article
| Open AccessCost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis has been targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. Here, the authors assess the cost-effectiveness of elimination strategies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and find that those which lead to elimination of transmission might also be considered cost-effective by conventional thresholds.
- Marina Antillon
- , Ching-I Huang
- & Fabrizio Tediosi
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Comment
| Open AccessMultilateral benefit-sharing from digital sequence information will support both science and biodiversity conservation
Ensuring international benefit-sharing from sequence data without jeopardising open sharing is a major obstacle for the Convention on Biological Diversity and other UN negotiations. Here, the authors propose a solution to address the concerns of both developing countries and life scientists.
- Amber Hartman Scholz
- , Jens Freitag
- & Jörg Overmann
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Article
| Open AccessAir quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
Understanding benefits of carbon mitigation is an important impetus for governments to adopt more ambitious climate targets. Here, the authors show positive air quality and health co-benefits are possible if China’s CO2 emissions peak before 2030.
- Rong Tang
- , Jing Zhao
- & Haikun Wang
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Article
| Open AccessShort- and long-read metagenomics of urban and rural South African gut microbiomes reveal a transitional composition and undescribed taxa
In this study, Wits and Stanford researchers use short- and long-read DNA sequencing to profile the gut microbiome of women living in rural and urban South Africa and identify transitional composition, high inter-individual diversity, and many undescribed taxa.
- Fiona B. Tamburini
- , Dylan Maghini
- & Ami S. Bhatt
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Article
| Open AccessPotential for future reductions of global GHG and air pollutants from circular waste management systems
A sustainability scenario yields major co-benefits compared to technical solution-focused scenarios, leaving 386 Tg CO2eq/yr of GHG to be released while air pollutants from open burning can be eliminated before 2050, finds study on implementation of circular municipal waste management systems.
- Adriana Gómez-Sanabria
- , Gregor Kiesewetter
- & Helmut Haberl
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Comment
| Open AccessA Just Digital framework to ensure equitable achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals
While the technological revolution is accelerating, digital poverty is undermining the Sustainable Development Goals. This article introduces a justice-oriented digital framework which considers how fair access to digital capabilities, commodities, infrastructure, and governance can reduce global inequality and advance the SDGs.
- Katriona O’Sullivan
- , Serena Clark
- & Malcolm MacLachlan
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| Open AccessENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the weather around the world and, therefore, has strong impacts on society. Here, the authors show that ENSO is associated with child nutrition in many countries, with warmer El Niño conditions leading to more child undernutrition in large parts of the developing world.
- Jesse K. Anttila-Hughes
- , Amir S. Jina
- & Gordon C. McCord
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Article
| Open AccessHousehold cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030
Household air pollution derived from cooking fuels is a major source of health and environmental problems. Here, the authors provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of cooking fuel usage from 1990 to 2030 and project that 31% of people will still be mainly using polluting fuels in 2030.
- Oliver Stoner
- , Jessica Lewis
- & Heather Adair-Rohani
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Article
| Open AccessKinship networks of seed exchange shape spatial patterns of plant virus diversity
This study combines ethnobotanical and epidemiological data to understand how social networks of seed exchange influence the genetic structure of the African cassava mosaic virus in Gabon. Results reveal contrasted patterns of viral diversity in patrilineal and matrilineal communities, consistent with cultural differences in modes of seed exchange.
- Marc Delêtre
- , Jean-Michel Lett
- & Charles Spillane
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Article
| Open AccessA generalizable and accessible approach to machine learning with global satellite imagery
This paper presents MOSAIKS, a system for planet-scale prediction of multiple outcomes using satellite imagery and machine learning (SIML). MOSAIKS generalizes across prediction domains and has the potential to enhance accessibility of SIML across research disciplines.
- Esther Rolf
- , Jonathan Proctor
- & Solomon Hsiang
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Article
| Open AccessIntergenerational nutrition benefits of India’s national school feeding program
India’s national school feeding program is the largest of its kind in the world, but the long-term program benefits on nutrition are unknown. Here, the authors show intergenerational program benefits, in that women who received free meals in primary school have children with improved linear growth.
- Suman Chakrabarti
- , Samuel P. Scott
- & Daniel O. Gilligan
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Article
| Open AccessLeveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria
Reported COVID-19 mortality rates have been relatively low in Syria, but there has been concern about overwhelmed health systems. Here, the authors use community mortality indicators and estimate that <3% of COVID-19 deaths in Damascus were reported as of 2 September 2020.
- Oliver J. Watson
- , Mervat Alhaffar
- & Patrick Walker
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Article
| Open AccessClimatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration
Adverse climatic conditions are commonly reported to shape asylum migration, but their effect relative to other drivers is unknown. Here the authors compare climatic, economic, and political factors as predictors of future asylum flows to the EU and find that war and repression are the most important factors.
- Sebastian Schutte
- , Jonas Vestby
- & Halvard Buhaug
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| Open AccessEngineering and characterization of gymnosperm sapwood toward enabling the design of water filtration devices
Gymnosperm sapwood is an abundantly available material to construct water filters but the material’s behaviour as a filter is poorly understood and challenges such as short shelf live have not been addressed. Here, the authors develop guidelines for the design and fabrication of xylem filters and demonstrate gravity-operated filters with a shelf life of more than two years for the removal of contaminants from spring, tap and ground water.
- Krithika Ramchander
- , Megha Hegde
- & Rohit Karnik
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Article
| Open AccessDigital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control
Digital contact tracing is increasingly considered as one of the tools to control infectious disease outbreaks, in particular the COVID-19 epidemic. Here, the authors present a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing apps.
- G. Cencetti
- , G. Santin
- & B. Lepri
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Article
| Open AccessProductive Ecosystems and the arrow of development
As countries experience economic growth, diversification of economic activities may occur. Here, the authors develop a probabilistic model to examine the diversification of economic activities and how countries may move from small ecosystem products to advanced product clusters over time.
- Neave O’Clery
- , Muhammed Ali Yıldırım
- & Ricardo Hausmann
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Article
| Open AccessAI-based mobile application to fight antibiotic resistance
Antimicrobial resistance is a major global health threat and its development is promoted by antibiotic misuse. Here, the authors present an offline smartphone application for automated and standardized antibiotic susceptibility testing, to be deployed in resource-limited settings.
- Marco Pascucci
- , Guilhem Royer
- & Mohammed-Amin Madoui
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Article
| Open AccessMathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil
Incidence of COVID-19 has been high in parts of South America including Brazil, and information on effective intervention strategies is needed. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to show that reductions in social distancing should be made gradually to avoid a severe second peak of cases.
- Osmar Pinto Neto
- , Deanna M. Kennedy
- & Renato Amaro Zângaro
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Article
| Open AccessDramatic uneven urbanization of large cities throughout the world in recent decades
Urban development has dramatically increased in recent decades. Analyzing 841 large cities throughout the world for the period from 2001 to 2018, the authors disclosed uneven features of global urbanization in terms of urban expansion, population growth, and greening at different economic levels.
- Liqun Sun
- , Ji Chen
- & Dian Huang
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Several dams and reservoirs exist along the Nile, most notably the HAD (Egypt) and GERD (Ethiopia) dams. Due to the lack of strategies, the authors here explore potential risks and solutions how to use both dams simultaneously.
- Kevin G. Wheeler
- , Marc Jeuland
- & Dale Whittington
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Article
| Open AccessYield reduction under climate warming varies among wheat cultivars in South Africa
Wheat yield is sensitive to temperature, but there could be substantial variation in this response across cultivars. Here the authors present data on the climatic responses of wheat cultivars in South Africa, highlighting which cultivars might be better able to maintain yield under warming.
- Aaron M. Shew
- , Jesse B. Tack
- & Petronella Chaminuka
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Comment
| Open AccessNew priorities for climate science and climate economics in the 2020s
Climate science and climate economics are critical sources of expertise in our pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. Effective use of this expertise requires a strengthening of its epistemic foundations and a renewed focus on more practical policy problems.
- David A. Stainforth
- & Raphael Calel
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Article
| Open AccessDecreased bioefficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets and the resurgence of malaria in Papua New Guinea
Malaria prevalence in Papua New Guinea has risen in recent years after almost a decade of decline. In this study, the authors demonstrate that long-lasting insecticidal nets used in the country that were manufactured since 2013 have significantly reduced bioefficacy.
- Rebecca Vinit
- , Lincoln Timinao
- & Stephan Karl
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Comment
| Open AccessHigh-altitude populations need special considerations for COVID-19
- Arnar Breevoort
- , Giovanni A. Carosso
- & Mohammed A. Mostajo-Radji
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Article
| Open AccessEvolution of the Chinese guarantee network under financial crisis and stimulus program
The systemic risk of real-world financial networks is understudied. Here the authors focused on the guarantee network among Chinese firms and found that the global financial crisis during 2007-2008 and economic policies in the aftermath had significant influence on the evolution of guarantee network structure.
- Yingli Wang
- , Qingpeng Zhang
- & Xiaoguang Yang
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Article
| Open AccessSocial-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra
Floods are an important natural disaster on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, but their driving mechanisms are not well understood. Here, the authors utilize data from twitter messages and local newspaper reports to show that convectively coupled Kelvin waves play a key role in promoting floods on Sumatra.
- Dariusz B. Baranowski
- , Maria K. Flatau
- & Marzuki
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Perspective
| Open AccessAI for social good: unlocking the opportunity for positive impact
The AI for Social Good movement aims to apply AI/ML tools to help in delivering on the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs). Here, the authors identify the challenges and propose guidelines for designing and implementing successful partnerships between AI researchers and application - domain experts.
- Nenad Tomašev
- , Julien Cornebise
- & Claudia Clopath
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Article
| Open AccessHeat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators
Evaluating the heat risk among city dwellers is important. Here, the authors assessed the heat risk in Philippine cities using remote sensing data and social-ecological indicators and found that the cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high.
- Ronald C. Estoque
- , Makoto Ooba
- & Shogo Nakamura
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Article
| Open AccessMarket integration reduces kin density in women’s ego-networks in rural Poland
Market integration may loosen the dense kinship networks maintaining high fertility among agriculturalists, but data are lacking. Here, Colleran shows that in 22 rural Polish communities, women’s ego networks are less kin-oriented, but not less dense, as market integration increases, potentially enabling low fertility values to spread.
- Heidi Colleran
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Perspective
| Open AccessThe role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming more and more common in people’s lives. Here, the authors use an expert elicitation method to understand how AI may affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
- Ricardo Vinuesa
- , Hossein Azizpour
- & Francesco Fuso Nerini
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Article
| Open AccessAntimicrobial resistant enteric bacteria are widely distributed amongst people, animals and the environment in Tanzania
Spread of antimicrobial-resistant (AR) bacteria is a global concern, but contributing factors remain unclear. Here, authors analyze distribution of AR bacteria in households from three ethnic groups in Tanzania and find that livelihood factors are more strongly associated with AR prevalence than antibiotic use.
- Murugan Subbiah
- , Mark A. Caudell
- & Douglas R. Call