Climate sciences articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rising temperatures in the Arctic can lead to the release of vast amounts of carbon stored in permafrost soils. Here the authors show that stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering can help to avoid about 14 gigatons of carbon release and US$8.4 trillion in economic losses by 2070 compared to RCP4.5 emissions.

    • Yating Chen
    • , Aobo Liu
    •  & John C. Moore

  • Article
    | Open Access

    One-third of Earth’s carbon is sequestered in peatlands, and its stability in the face of climate change is unknown. Here the authors show that warming leads to the release of carbon as methane, but only the most prolonged warming leads to the breakdown and release of deep, old carbon.

    • A. M. Hopple
    • , R. M. Wilson
    •  & S. D. Bridgham

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The impacts of power plant water shortage during drought on electricity prices are understudied. Here the authors show that on extreme days, almost 50% (7 GWe) of the freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable in the Great Britain and annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices are in the range of £29-95m per year.

    • Edward A. Byers
    • , Gemma Coxon
    •  & Jim W. Hall

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Previous work suggests that marine oxygen levels and bioturbation are important factors that shape phosphorus burial and the size of the marine biosphere. Here the authors show that seawater calcium concentration is a key factor in controlling marine P burial, and thus the global oxygen cycle.

    • Mingyu Zhao
    • , Shuang Zhang
    •  & Noah Planavsky

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Siberian Arctic permafrost contains vast stores of carbon, the fate of which is dependent on the climate. Here the authors use models of future scenarios to show that under the direst climate changes up to 2/3 of the stored organic carbon could thaw.

    • Jan Nitzbon
    • , Sebastian Westermann
    •  & Julia Boike

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Threats to marine ecosystems are increasing due to ocean acidification, but trends are spatiotemporally difficult to monitor or predict. Here the authors use an Earth system model to accurately predict surface pH changes in the economically and ecologically important California Current System.

    • Riley X. Brady
    • , Nicole S. Lovenduski
    •  & Keith Lindsay

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Biosphere productivity is an important component of the CO2 cycle, but how it has varied over past glacial-interglacial cycles is not well known. Here, the authors present new data that shows that global biosphere productivity was 10 to 30% higher during Termination V compared to younger deglaciations.

    • Margaux Brandon
    • , Amaelle Landais
    •  & Thomas Blunier

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Carbon emission trading is an important market-based policy instrument to reduce GHG emission using reward-punishment mechanism. Here the authors show that the EU emission trading schemes operate at its designed purpose and there is a positive and linear relationship between firm profits and the firms’ efforts in abatement.

    • Jianfeng Guo
    • , Fu Gu
    •  & Ying Fan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Plants respond to increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere by stomatal closure which causes a reduction of evapotranspiration and thus latent heat flux. Here, the authors show that this CO2 physiological forcing strengthens Arctic warming through increasing sea ice loss and local feedbacks.

    • So-Won Park
    • , Jin-Soo Kim
    •  & Jong-Seong Kug

  • Article
    | Open Access

    How the development of human societies is influenced through their ecological environment and climatic conditions has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors present multi-proxy data from southern Scandinavia which suggests that pre-agricultural population growth there was likely influenced by enhanced marine production.

    • J. P. Lewis
    • , D. B. Ryves
    •  & S. Juggins

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tropical cyclones can cause severe flooding when making landfall, but these water flows can often only be forecasted a few hours before. Here, the authors present a new approach using self-organizing maps and flow characteristic curves to predict tropical cyclone related runoff up to two days in advance.

    • Li-Chiu Chang
    • , Fi-John Chang
    •  & Edwin E. Herricks

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Observations of global ocean heat content during 2005–2015 have shown a strong hemispheric asymmetry, and the southern hemisphere accounts 92% of the total heat gain. Here, the authors show that the rate of observed global ocean warming is consistent with a forced symmetric climate change signal and an asymmetric climate variation for this period.

    • Saurabh Rathore
    • , Nathaniel L. Bindoff
    •  & Ming Feng

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Marine heatwaves are threatening ocean ecosystems with increasing frequency, but their seasonal drivers are unknown. Here, the authors determine that summertime blobs of warm temperature anomalies in the Pacific occur as a result of prolonged weakening in the North Pacific High-Pressure System.

    • Dillon J. Amaya
    • , Arthur J. Miller
    •  & Yu Kosaka

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In recent history the amount of carbon captured by terrestrial systems has increased, but the processes driving this process has remained poorly constrained. Here the authors use a global carbon model to show that a decrease in wildfires has caused the land carbon sink to increase in the past few decades.

    • Yi Yin
    • , A. Anthony Bloom
    •  & David Schimel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global ocean circulation overturns and starts anew in the North Atlantic, propagating climate signals to the rest of the oceans. Using drifter data, Zou and colleagues re-map the spreading pattern for one of the deep water masses and show the impact of mesoscale processes on that pattern.

    • Sijia Zou
    • , Amy Bower
    •  & Xiaobiao Xu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tidewater glaciers in fjords can advance/retreat independent of climate due to stabilization by sediments at their termini. We show that an Alaskan paleo-ice stream behaved similarly on an open shelf, suggesting that increased sediment flux may delay catastrophic retreat of outlet glaciers in a warming world.

    • Ellen A. Cowan
    • , Sarah D. Zellers
    •  & Stewart J. Fallon

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Late Ordovician mass extinction has been attributed to extended marine anoxia. Here, the authors use a metal isotope mass balance model and find the marine anoxic event lasted over 3 million years, notably longer than the anoxic event associated with the Permian-Triassic extinction and Cretaceous ocean anoxic events.

    • Richard G. Stockey
    • , Devon B. Cole
    •  & Erik A. Sperling

  • Article
    | Open Access

    High latitude droughts are increasing, but their effects on freshwater systems are poorly understood. Here the authors investigate Sweden’s most severe drought in the last century and show that these dry conditions induce hypoxia and elevated methane production from streams.

    • Lluís Gómez-Gener
    • , Anna Lupon
    •  & Ryan A. Sponseller

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems, yet we lack information on their response to climate change. Here, the authors show that east Australian estuaries are warming and acidifying faster than predicted by ocean or atmospheric models; a trend that is magnified in shallow estuaries.

    • Elliot Scanes
    • , Peter R. Scanes
    •  & Pauline M. Ross

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Arctic plant growth is predominantly nitrogen limited, where the slow nitrogen turnover in the soil is commonly attributed to the cold arctic climate. Here the authors show that the arctic plant-soil nitrogen cycling is also constrained by the lack of larger detritivores like earthworms.

    • Gesche Blume-Werry
    • , Eveline J. Krab
    •  & Jonatan Klaminder

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many major mass extinction events have been associated with large volcanic eruption events, with the argument that large volumes of volcanic degassing could trigger past global climate changes. Here, the authors find that during the end-Triassic extinction event volcanic pulses emitted large amounts of CO2 comparable to projected anthropogenic emissions for the 21st century in the future 2 °C warming scenario.

    • Manfredo Capriolo
    • , Andrea Marzoli
    •  & Csaba Szabó

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Cooling demand project largely ignores the role of humidity. Here the authors show that in many of the high energy consuming states, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10–15% under both present and future climate scenarios, due to the neglected role of humidity.

    • Debora Maia-Silva
    • , Rohini Kumar
    •  & Roshanak Nateghi

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The release of ancient carbon from thawing permafrost is thought to have an important impact on global biogeochemistry through positive feedbacks. Here Dean and colleagues show that in Siberian permafrost, warming could liberate more contemporary carbon relative to aged counterparts.

    • Joshua F. Dean
    • , Ove H. Meisel
    •  & A. Johannes Dolman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Most of the North Atlantic has seen strong increase in surface temperatures in recent decades, except for one region, which has been called the North Atlantic warming hole. Here, the authors employ detection and attribution techniques to show that this temperature pattern in recent decades is being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    • Rei Chemke
    • , Laure Zanna
    •  & Lorenzo M. Polvani

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global atmospheric CO2 varies between glacial–interglacial cycles. Here, the authors study these changes using Si records and how the Si flux and ocean circulation changes controlled the global Si distribution across the last deglaciation, based on high-resolution Si-isotope records from the Indian Sector Southern Ocean.

    • M. Dumont
    • , L. Pichevin
    •  & R. Ganeshram

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Following international agreements, the use of chlorofluorocarbons in production is supposed to be phased out. Here, the authors present a new estimate of these products already in use and their emissions and show that they are larger than expected and that not recovering these banks leads to a substantial delay in the polar ozone hole recovery.

    • Megan Lickley
    • , Susan Solomon
    •  & Kane Stone

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections.

    • Peer Nowack
    • , Jakob Runge
    •  & Joanna D. Haigh

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Water temperature is a critical variable for lakes, but its spatial and temporal patterns are not well characterised globally. Here, the authors use surface temperature dynamics to define lake thermal regions that group lakes with similar patterns, and show how these regions shift under climate change.

    • Stephen C. Maberly
    • , Ruth A. O’Donnell
    •  & Andrew N. Tyler

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Extreme high temperature events are increasing in frequency and severity, threatening the capacity for crops and farmers alike to adapt. Here Sloat and colleagues track the movement of cereal crops over the past 40 years, finding a global migration away from warming climates.

    • Lindsey L. Sloat
    • , Steven J. Davis
    •  & Nathaniel D. Mueller

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors compared the performance of a range of rural water supply types during drought in Ethiopia. They show that prioritising access to groundwater via multiple improved water sources and technologies, such as hand-pumped and motorised boreholes, supported by monitoring and proactive operation and maintenance increases rural water supply resilience.

    • D. J. MacAllister
    • , A. M. MacDonald
    •  & R. Calow

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Southern Ocean is an important sink of carbon via the biological pump. Here authors run high-resolution physical/biogeochemical simulations of an open-Southern Ocean ecosystem forced with a realistic seasonal cycle and confirm that (sub)mesoscale iron transport across the mixing-layer base sustains primary productivity.

    • Takaya Uchida
    • , Dhruv Balwada
    •  & Marina Lévy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Palm oil biofuels are touted as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. Meijide and colleagues use greenhouse gas measurements to update life cycle assessments of oil palm growth scenarios and show that despite the promise, emission savings do not meet sustainability standards.

    • Ana Meijide
    • , Cristina de la Rua
    •  & Alexander Knohl

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Land cover change contributes to regional climate trends. Here, the authors use high-resolution land cover maps and state-of-the-art climate modelling to assess land cover change effects across Europe over 1992-2015, showing widespread cooling after agricultural abandonment but also different, region-specific effects.

    • Bo Huang
    • , Xiangping Hu
    •  & Francesco Cherubini

  • Article
    | Open Access

    How the Asian monsoon, earth surface processes and human development interact is not well known. Here, a new record of dust storm intensity shows a relationship between the stability of dynasties and dust storm activity for the last ~2200 years, which argues for a strong human control of dust storms in East Asia over this time.

    • Fahu Chen
    • , Shengqian Chen
    •  & Jianbao Liu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    New hydrological simulations show for the first time how sensitive groundwater and surface water connections are to systematic warming across the continental United States. The authors here show a clear reduction in subsurface water storage under a warming climate and intensified aridification of north America.

    • Laura E. Condon
    • , Adam L. Atchley
    •  & Reed M. Maxwell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Compound hot extremes that combine day- and nighttime heat have particularly strong impacts. Here, the authors show that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have made compound hot extremes increasingly frequent and intense, and project that under future emissions four to eight times as many people will be affected by them by 2100.

    • Jun Wang
    • , Yang Chen
    •  & Jiangjiang Xia

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The carbon footprints of natural gas supplies at the field level are unclear. Here the authors analysed the GHG intensities of gas supplies from 104 fields and show that their GHG intensities range from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO2eq MJ-1.

    • Yu Gan
    • , Hassan M. El-Houjeiri
    •  & Michael Wang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Glaciers have profoundly shaped Earth’s surface, but glacial erosion models lack a strong empirical basis. Cook et al. have compiled a dataset that illustrates how the speed at which glaciers move controls the rate at which they erode, and that climate is crucial in modulating glacier sliding speed and erosion rates.

    • Simon J. Cook
    • , Darrel A. Swift
    •  & Richard I. Waller

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The freshwater content of the Beaufort Gyre in the Western Arctic Ocean has increased in response to almost two decades of persistent anti-cyclonic winds. Here, the authors found that dramatic loss of sea ice and acceleration of surface currents after 2007 led to a net annual wind energy input to the Beaufort Gyre, and anticipate that continued sea ice decline will lead to an increasingly energetic Beaufort Gyre.

    • Thomas W. K. Armitage
    • , Georgy E. Manucharyan
    •  & Andrew F. Thompson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    What drives hydroclimate changes in tropical regions is not well known. Here, the authors present a 12,000 year long precipitation record from Guetemala which shows that exceeding a threshold in sea surface temperatures caused Central American rainfall to change from a dry to an active convective regime around 9000 years ago.

    • Amos Winter
    • , Davide Zanchettin
    •  & Carla Taricco

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage, in particular through flooding of coastal areas. Here, the authors show that in addition to known impacts, tropical cyclone rainbands can cause meteotsunami waves that can contribute significantly to the total water levels and hence flooding risks.

    • Luming Shi
    • , Maitane Olabarrieta
    •  & John C. Warner

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Plants are thought to be limited by phosphorus (P) especially in tropical regions. Here, Hou et al. report a meta-analysis of P fertilization experiments to show widespread P limitation on plant growth across terrestrial ecosystems modulated by climate, ecosystem properties, and fertilization regimes

    • Enqing Hou
    • , Yiqi Luo
    •  & Dazhi Wen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The role of paddy rice agriculture in the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration remains unclear. Here, Zhang et al. show that regions with dense rice paddies have high satellite-based column averaged CH4 concentrations (XCH4), and that seasonal dynamics of XCH4 mirror those of paddy rice growth.

    • Geli Zhang
    • , Xiangming Xiao
    •  & Berrien Moore III

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The effect of soil structure is not included in most Earth System Models. The authors here introduce and evaluate the consequences at local and global scale of modifying hydraulic properties of soils in response to biological activity—a process significantly changing soil structure.

    • Simone Fatichi
    • , Dani Or
    •  & Roni Avissar

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The ensemble spread of climate models is often interpreted as the uncertainty of the projection, but this is not always justified. Applying learning algorithms to an ensemble of climate predictions allows for a significant uncertainty reduction of projected global mean surface temperatures compared to the ensemble spread.

    • Ehud Strobach
    •  & Golan Bel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Southern Ocean plays a key role in glacial-interglacial transitions and today, Weddell Sea derived Antarctic Bottom Water is one of the most important deep water masses. New records show that in contrast to today, no Weddell Sea water was exported during the last two glacial maxima, providing new insights towards the condition of Antarctic Bottom Water formation in extreme climate states.

    • Huang Huang
    • , Marcus Gutjahr
    •  & Gerhard Kuhn

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